Petro Oleshchuk: The SCO Summit Is A Theater For Western Audiences

Are things going so smoothly for the "allies" coming to China?

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit united India, China, Russia, the Lukashenko regime and other world pariahs. The Wall Street Journal writes that these countries are "challenging the West."

Is a new alliance really forming or is it just an ostensible unity? Charter97.org spoke to Ukrainian political scientist, professor of the Kiev National Taras Shevchenko University Petr Oleshchuk about it:

- The list of participants in the summit is quite revealing. Even the senior leader of the Burmese military junta participates. It's like the movie "Dr. Evil Gathers Friends." That's the kind of association that comes to mind. All the outcasts have been brought together.

In fact, I think that despite such a demonstration of unity, each of the participants has their own interests. Many people are now discussing some kind of union between India and China, that it is supposedly some kind of big sensation. They say that the countries, which have been in unfriendly relations for a long time, are now uniting to confront the US. I would not rush to talk about some kind of big unification of India and China, because they still have numerous unresolved contradictions.

- What kind of contradictions?

- First of all, they have not settled the territorial issue. That is, they don't have a recognized border, there are a huge number of territorial disputes, conflicts related to that. India has a functioning Tibetan government in exile. It's all very complicated, and not something that can be solved by one visit or any single negotiation. Perhaps relations will improve, but the contradictions between India and China are actually very serious.

I believe that in this way the Indian Prime Minister is simply putting pressure on the United States. After all, the United States imposed tariffs on India, which caused sharp rejection and protests in the country, and this visit and the alleged attempt to refocus on China are just raising the stakes in the U.S. bargaining.

Look, you're putting pressure on us, we can do something for you in return. Nevertheless, I'm sure the Indian government is interested in negotiating with the US, in removing Trump's tariffs. It's just that they probably want to conduct these negotiations from a position of strength.

About everything else, you can't really say that there is any kind of really formed alliance. I note that in all statements from China there is a veiled idea that they are claiming a new world order in which China will play a key role. Let's say, the transition of the leading role from the U.S. to China and everything like that, but so far it sounds like a kind of declaration.

A separate topic is relations with Russia, i.e. there are also many declarations, for example, the construction of a new gas pipeline (or rather, even two) through the territory of China, Mongolia and Russia.

But these are distant projects that will work in years. For now, this is more of a political declaration, which I think is designed to show the Trump administration that all their projects are aimed at pulling Russia to their side. They say it can't be torn away from China, it's standing there tightly. Another symbolic gesture is the announcement of visa-free travel to China for Russian citizens. Frankly speaking, I have the impression that this whole summit is a kind of theater for Western spectators. First, China claims to form a new world order led by China itself. Second, Russia is China's fiefdom, and relations between Russia and China will only deepen, no matter what the U.S. tries to do.

Third, India and China are cooperating. All countries are going to China to show loyalty to the Chinese leadership.

That is, China is the new world center. At the same time, I think there will not be much material results (something tangible) from this summit. It is a kind of symbolic Chinese triumph. That's exactly how it is designed.

As for Lukashenko, he is trying to position himself as a separate player who interacts directly with China, not through Russia. Obviously, he sees China as the main guarantor of the status quo. He hopes to balance between Russia and China, while somehow trying to establish relations with the Trump administration as well, as part of the release of political prisoners.

- What could be the U.S. reaction to Russia and India's rapprochement with China?"

- No one knows. Predicting the Trump administration is useless. Most likely, he is unlikely to dare to take any decisive action. It is possible that Trump may even engage in hostilities against Venezuela now. To divert attention and show that we are in the process of restoring order on our borders. That's the most important thing for us right now. That is, Trump may somehow try to ignore all this.

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