Volodymyr Fesenko: This War Could Change Trump's Mind

The President of the United States will become more decisive.

What are the results of Israel's operations against Iran today? Will the U.S. enter the war? What are the implications of war in the Middle East for Ukraine? Will American President Donald Trump become a classic "hawk"?

About this, Charter97.org talked to a well-known Ukrainian political scientist, head of the Center for Applied Political Research "Penta" Vladimir Fesenko:

- The Israeli attack is impressive: a simultaneous strike on nuclear facilities, which caused significant damage. It may not be fatal, it did not completely destroy Iran's nuclear program, but it caused significant damage. Of course - a strike on Iran's military leadership. That was most impressive.

It was obvious that in the first phase, at least until late in the evening of the first day of the war between Israel and Iran, the Iranian leadership was in a state of grogginess, a knockdown. They could not make any decisions. Only by evening did they come to their senses.

Possible personnel appointments were made. So the blow to the military leadership and to the nuclear physicists looked very impressive. I think it gave a definite advantage to Israel at the start. And, of course, massive pinpoint strikes, which Iran was clearly not prepared for. Israel's advantage was evident even then. Now that Iran's retaliatory missile strikes have passed, it is noticeable that Israel was more prepared for a prolonged air war. Israel has succeeded in gaining an air advantage over Iran. The recent attacks, particularly on Tehran, are very telling.

The fact that the Israeli Air Force is now virtually dominating Tehran and launching precision strikes, while Iran is unable to respond, speaks to Israel's serious advantage. It appears that IDF air pressure is intensifying.

And Iran has proved unprepared. Either the reserves are exhausted, or still Israel managed to suppress a significant part of Tehran's missile installations. So now, judging by the events of the last 24 hours, Iran cannot adequately respond.

We will see how the situation will develop further. But at the moment, both strategic and tactical advantage in the air war between Israel and Iran is on the side of Israel. It seems that the bet is now on demoralization, on the destruction of, let's say, administrative and managerial processes in Iran, on strengthening chaotic processes, as well as the mood of discontent in Iranian society, to actually break Iran, to force it to negotiate, the main issue at which will be not the cessation of hostilities, as Iran would like, but the cessation of the nuclear program.

- Should we expect the US to join the war?

- Apparently, in the coming days, in addition to air attacks on Iran, the Americans will get involved, and the recent public statements of Donald Trump indirectly speak about it. The Americans will apparently threaten Iran: either it resumes negotiations to end its nuclear program, or the US may join in attacks on Iran. It will not necessarily be direct attacks by the Americans, but they can give, for example, weapons to destroy bunkers and attack underground facilities.

The Americans have such weapons, and if they give them to Israel, of course, it could increase the effectiveness of the attacks. They already have an advantage in this air war. But if they start strikes on underground facilities, it could have huge risks for the Iranian leadership, which is hiding in underground bunkers, and for various military and nuclear facilities of Iran, which are also underground.

- How will the war in the Middle East affect Ukraine?

- I will tell you right away that the impact is very ambiguous. And so far there are more problematic moments, at least - at the initial stage. I will note that the majority of Ukrainians sympathize with Israel in this war.

And this is not accidental, but due to the fact that Iran is an ally of Russia. Iran gave Russia military drones in the first year of the war and also gave a license to manufacture them. Now it is military drones that are attacking Ukraine every day. Drones created under Iranian license.

The positive effect for us may be in the case if the Iranian regime close to the Russian Federation falls. If there are events like in Syria, when Russia loses, having lost its ally in the Middle East.

This is an indirect positive consequence, some weakening of Russia's position in the Middle East. It will not affect the course of the war between Russia and Ukraine, but it will still weaken Russia's geopolitical position. At least some positive effect.

But there are, unfortunately, already negative consequences of this war. First, it is the rise in oil prices. The higher the oil price, the more revenues for Russia from oil sales.

And these revenues are the main source of financing the war against Ukraine. The second negative consequence is related to the fact that those American interceptor missiles and other munitions for air defense systems, which Ukraine was counting on, which it wanted to buy from the U.S., are now going to Israel. Before the current war between Israel and Iran, there was such a scandalous situation when it became known that the Pentagon had transferred 20,000 interceptor missiles to Israel, the components of which could be used by Ukraine to fight the Shaheds. This happened even before Israel's attack on Iran.

Now it is clear that the Americans were preparing, but it doesn't make us feel any better. So, unfortunately, as it was also in October 2023, when Hamas attacked Israel, we lost artillery shells that were going to Ukraine from strategic stockpiles, which began to be used for Israel. And now air defense systems, air defense munitions, including, I think, Patriot missiles, which Ukraine really needs.

Unfortunately, Ukraine is unlikely to get that now, at least not anytime soon, because it's all going to Israel. This is the second negative consequence. And the third problem is that, of course, all the attention of the main geopolitical players, including our partners, has now shifted to the war between Israel and Iran.

This is noticeable at the G7 summit. There, the Ukrainian topic will be discussed just today. But we see that Trump is now fixated on Iran. He does not care about Ukraine. Perhaps because there are positive trends in Iran, it is important for Trump.

As for Ukraine, he does not know what to do, he does not want to be in the role of a loser, in the role of a man who has nothing to say to Zelensky and nothing to suggest how to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. The topic of the Russian-Ukrainian war has been relegated to the background. All attention is focused on the topic of the war between Israel and Iran. First of all, again, because of the oil problem.

Because there are risks of an energy crisis here, of stopping oil supplies from the Persian Gulf countries if this war escalates. So the situation is objective. But it is not critical for us.

This is a temporary problem, but for today it is also negative consequences. Also, Putin is using the current situation in his work with Trump, manipulating him, offering his services. It is unlikely that he will do anything to help Trump here in practice.

But the situation itself allows him to maintain active communication with the US president. And we can see that this affects him.

This can also be considered a negative consequence. In fact, here Putin solves two problems at once. On the one hand, he gets an excuse to actively communicate with Trump and manipulate him by offering him "mediation services." On the other hand, ostensibly acting as a mediator, he is also trying to save the current Iranian regime. This is also in his interests. For Ukraine, the current situation will be problematic if the war drags on, if there is an escalation.

If, for example, Iran tries to block the Strait of Hormuz, which will provoke a global energy crisis. If Israel manages to crush Iran with US support and the war ends in the next week, then this scenario will be optimal for us. But for Putin, probably not.

- Donald Trump has come under fire for criticism from his fellow MAGA members. He is criticized by journalist Tucker Carlson, comparing the US president to Bush Jr. who started the war against Iraq. Should we expect Trump's evolution in these events? Will he become a classic Republican hawk?"

- Trump's post on Tucker Carlson appeared today because of his interview with Steve Bannon, an ideologue of Trumpism and one of the ideologues of MAGA (the famous slogan "Make America Great Again").

The problem is that the classic representatives of the MAGA movement are against US military activity in other parts of the world. And it doesn't matter here - Europe, Ukraine, even the Middle East, where it would seem the U.S. has many of its own strategic interests, including support for Israel. But MAGA countered. "No need to meddle in anything. Not Taiwan, not Ukraine, not the Middle East. It's not our war," is their position.

But that's the MAGA position, and the position of classical Republicans is quite different. One has to stand up for the interests of the US. Otherwise, the U.S. will look like a weakling and a loser, and it will negatively affect America's international position. And I think Trump understands this.

And there is another purely psychological moment. Trump is on the winning side. If the Israeli attack had failed and was not so successful, Trump would be actively in favor of negotiations.

Because Trump is not a man of war, he is in favor of negotiations, some peaceful solutions. But he likes to be a winner. And here is the success of Israel, it is necessary to demonstrate that this success was achieved thanks to the United States. Americans should be great. They have to show their greatness, so here Trump is taking Israel's side. Although before this, Trump was holding Israel back from a military attack. In addition, I think that a very important factor is also affecting here - how Iran was perceived both in the Trump administration and among Republicans, in the Senate, in Congress.

This I know from many testimonies of both our and American colleagues. Even in the early days of Trump's presidency, even when there was a transition period, it was Iran that everyone was talking about. The main object of irritation, of discontent is Iran.

Tehran was considered America's main enemy. China is the main strategic opponent, the main competitor, but the main enemy and irritant is Tehran. So to punish Iran, to destroy Iran is something that is very much to the liking of just such classical Republicans.

For them, Iran is a symbolic target. You know, as they used to say in Rome, "Carthage must be destroyed." To paraphrase that phrase for classical Republicans, "Iran must be finally defeated." Now they see that there is a definite chance for this to happen, and they want to put it into practice.

Trump seems to be leaning toward this very position. If it is possible to achieve a victory over Iran, I do not rule out that this may inspire Trump and maybe make him more decisive.

Who knows, maybe there will be some positive effect here for Ukraine and for, let's say, strengthening the international role of the United States. Because Trump's isolationism was clearly dominant. And now the victory over Iran, if it takes place, may change Trump, add adrenaline to him and create motivation for strengthening the international role of the United States.

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