"This Is The Koshcheyov's Needle Of Putin's Imperialism."
13- 14.05.2025, 17:53
- 24,592
The Russian economy is breathing down its neck.
U.S. President Donald Trump arrived in Saudi Arabia as part of a tour of the Middle East. It's his first major foreign diplomatic trip.
It's notable that Trump arrived in Riyadh amid the country's and OPEC+'s decision to increase production by another 411,000 bpd in June.
Are there any links between these events? Charter97.org spoke to Ukrainian political scientist, professor at Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv Peter Oleshchuk about this:
- It should be noted that even before the election, Trump talked about the need to increase oil production. His legendary phrase, "Drill, baby, drill!" ("Drill, baby, drill!") is well known. He said that it was primarily for the US economy, because lower oil prices would have a positive impact on the US economy. But he also said it was one way to get the war in Ukraine stopped.
Mol, if oil prices fall, the Russians will have less money to fight, and that will bring peace closer. In general, OPEC's increase in oil production is a definite step toward what Trump has repeatedly said.
Is there a direct link here? It's hard to say, because in fact behind OPEC's decision there are quite specific economic reasons, which are not directly related to the Russian-Ukrainian war, but are related to Trump's policy.
The fact that Trump started a series of trade wars, various economic conflicts, all this has worsened the performance of the world economy. Against this background, oil prices began to fall, and in order to maintain the level of their income, the countries that produce oil, begin to increase it.
I emphasize that not necessarily the actions of Saudi Arabia are directly aimed at achieving an end to the war in Ukraine, but still in a certain way they coincide.
I think that in general, Saudi Arabia expects Trump to make important decisions. Against this background, the country may go for something that may please him. And lower oil prices will definitely please the US president, even without regard to Ukraine.
The scheme looks as follows: Saudi Arabia is taking certain steps towards Trump, which concern not only oil production, but also some other decisions. Trump is taking certain steps towards Saudi Arabia, including some important Middle Eastern decisions.
All of this, of course, is not directly related to the war in Ukraine, but indirectly will have an impact.
Because any increase in oil production means lower prices. Any decrease in prices is a blow to Putin's economy, which is already breathing down its neck. Putin will have fewer arguments about "fighting forever".
- Can this alliance between Trump and Riyadh influence the course of the war in Ukraine? Saudi Arabia is an important mediator (along with the UAE) that has influence over both Russia and Ukraine. It is a country that has some credibility, including for Putin.
It has previously been repeatedly seen as a hypothetical mediator in negotiations to end the war. It is not excluded that she will be re-established in this context again. But for now it is too early to talk about it.
The Istanbul track will still be tried to the end, but frankly, I do not believe that it will lead to anything far-reaching.
Nevertheless, it is not excluded that when the Russian Federation will be set up for real negotiations and not for their imitation, Saudi Arabia may well become a place where they can take place.
- Is it possible to lower the price of oil enough to really damage Putin?
- It is possible, but the problem is that it is unlikely to be achieved by any one solution. The important role here will be played not only by lower oil prices, but also by actions against Russia's ability to sell this oil.
They will sell it even at a low price, so the sanctions actions that are being taken against the Russian shadow fleet are also important.
As well as direct "sanctions" of the SBU, which Ukraine imposes on Russian refineries, as well as other elements of the Russian oil infrastructure.
There should be some kind of synergy: sanctions, and the price, and restrictions, and strikes on the Russian oil infrastructure. But in any case, oil is the "koscheyev's needle", which is the basis of Putin's imperialism.
If it is broken, Russia's willingness and ability to pursue an imperialist policy will be undermined for a very long time.
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