Yauhen Afnagel: We See Lukashenko's Confusion And Hysteria

Where do I get the money?

As the Soviet Union once ceased to exist, so will Lukashenko's regime. This may happen in the next two or three years, said in an interview with "Radio Racyja" former political prisoner, forcibly deported to Lithuania, coordinator of the civil campaign "European Belarus", one of the founders of the youth movement "Zubr" Yauhen Afnagel:

- Let's look at the news we get from Belarus. On the one hand, we see that the nuts are tightened, that repressions are going on. Almost every day we get information about new arrests and trials, about new political prisoners.

On the other hand, we also see the behavior of the authorities. We see their confusion. We see Lukashenko's statements about problems, about sabotage, about lack of money. We see the hysteria when he attacks officials who simply don't know what to do in such a situation, because they too don't have an answer, where to get money, what to do next. We see a situation very similar to that of the late Soviet Union.

On the surface, everything seemed fine. If anyone in 1989 had been asked how long the Soviet Union would last, they would have said: a long time. But not even a year later, unrest began because of a sharp rise in prices, and events took place in Tbilisi, Baku, Riga, and Vilnius. In a very short time, the Soviet Union ceased to exist. The same can happen with the Belarusian dictatorship. Any event, even not very significant one, is enough. It can be Russia's defeat on the Ukrainian front, rising prices, non-payment of wages at some factory, a conflict within the government itself. All this is quite likely.

If the system is unstable, and it is clearly unstable now - we can see it from Lukashenko's behavior - it can collapse at any moment. We have to be ready for it in order to take power in Belarus into our own hands.

- And when do you think these momentous events can happen?

- I would say in the next two or three years, maybe five years. Right now, a very important factor is the war in Ukraine. We see that the Ukrainians have found one of Russia's pain points and are successfully hitting it. They are destroying the energy system, striking oil refineries. About 20 refineries in European Russia have been hit this year. In August and October, the Russians lost about 20% of their refining capacity. This could turn the tide of the war. There are many such pain points. We should not forget that Belarusian refineries also work for the Russian war machine. Ukraine has a moral right to influence the operation of these refineries.

I see parallels with the Afghan war. Yes, the Russians in Ukraine control the territory they occupy, advancing tens and hundreds of meters in some places. But in Afghanistan, Soviet troops controlled 90% of the territory, all major cities, but still had to leave the country.

War is very expensive. The Russian economy will not be able to sustain it in the long term. If the Ukrainians endure, if they find the strength to hold back the advance of Russian troops, if the West increases its support for Ukraine and defense spending, then victory will become real in the near future. Ukraine's victory is the end of Russia. The end of Russia is the end of dictatorship in Belarus.

- Are there any forces left inside Belarus capable of taking control of the situation? If changes happen, should we count on those who are now abroad?

- All those who voted against Lukashenko, who took to the streets, have not gone anywhere. A significant part of them left the country, but a significant part of them remained.

The circle of the discontented is expanding, because every political prisoner has relatives. Now there is probably not a single family left in Belarus, where a relative, friend or, for example, a colleague at work has not been subjected to repression.

After the events of the last five years, hatred towards Lukashenko and rejection of his regime have increased. Moreover, people realize that even the external stability that exists now will not last long. Everyone sees what is happening around, in society, at work. I think there are a lot of questions, despite the propaganda, about what is happening on the Ukrainian-Russian front. Four years ago Belarusians heard the victorious statements of the Russian authorities, which were then joined by the Belarusian ones. Now it is clear that the war will drag on for Ukraine in the worst case, and in the best case it will end with Russia's defeat. The fact that it will affect the situation in Belarus, I think, is obvious to everyone.

Therefore, on the one hand, there is great pressure, great repression in Belarus, and on the other hand, the absolute majority of people do not accept this government. At the right moment it will lead to changes.

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