Five Questions About 2025

What awaits Ukraine, Russia and the world?

I have never done this, but why not play a forecasting game? Here are five questions that I consider key for us and the world. And the answers to which I have modeled in my head and which I am sharing with you.

1. Will the Russian-Ukrainian war end?

My expectations: No, it will not end. Even in the frozen version.

Russia retains the ability to wage war by mobilizing human resources, producing and supplying weapons. Ukraine, for its part, is increasing its own weapons production and receiving support from partners.

For Putin, ending the war on terms that would be accepted as a defeat is unacceptable due to the threat of losing internal legitimacy. Ukraine, in turn, cannot agree to the conditions that Russia is now putting forward. Newly elected President Trump does not demonstrate that he has mechanisms to force Putin to make concessions.

Perhaps, exhaustion of the parties will accumulate closer to the end of the year. But it takes months to implement hypothetical agreements. So far, the parties have not demonstrated readiness to begin this process.

What can change the trend? Western countries are increasing their support and/or pressure on Russia many times over. Either Russia or Ukraine is experiencing a rapid internal collapse. The first is unrealistic, the second is impossible to predict.

2. Is the Russian economy facing a systemwide crisis?

My expectations: Yes, it is. The Russian economy is experiencing a systemwide crisis and will be approaching its collapse.

The Russian economy has long suffered from the 'Dutch disease' – when dependence on raw material exports destroys other sectors of the economy. This led to the fact that stagnation began in the Russian economy back in 2012.

The Russian economy is currently overheated, its "growth" is provided exclusively by military spending. This inevitably leads to accelerated inflation, labour shortages and galloping growth of the budget deficit.

Money from the sale of oil and gas cannot compensate for demographic and fundamental economic factors even in the medium term. An overheated economy will no longer stabilize without reducing military spending.

3. Will a full-scale trade war between the US and China begin?

My expectations: No, it won't. The risk of a full-scale trade war will increase, but the US and China remain interconnected in the economic sphere, which restrains escalation.

However, the protectionist policy of the US and China's ambitions to dominate high-tech sectors will increase tensions and will certainly lead to a number of local trade conflicts.

The confrontation will be concentrated in the field of artificial intelligence and semiconductors, where the US will continue to limit China. China will hit the US in its weak spots – access to rare metals, first of all.

4. Will another great war break out somewhere in the world?

My expectations: Yes, it will.

Tensions between Israel and Iran are not abating. A potential conflict could involve the US and Saudi Arabia. A bunch of tension points in South Asia (India-Pakistan, Pakistan-Afghanistan, Iran-Afghanistan) could escalate over any reason.

I would not rule out a 'black swan' in Africa – possible escalations between Algeria and Morocco and a civil war in Sudan, a constant risk of a serious escalation in the Congo, where the largest reserves of rare metals after China are concentrated.

Although China continues to increase its military presence in the South China Sea, I consider a war between China and Taiwan or the Philippines next year unlikely.

5. Will the Alternative for Germany party join the parliamentary coalition?

My expectations: No, it won't. This will at least delay the legitimization of fascists – far-right populists in federal German politics and Europe as a whole.

The AfD can significantly improve its position in February. However, even in the case of a high result, the party will most likely remain in the opposition due to the rejection of its positions by other parties.

Given the current ratings, the most likely coalition options are black-green (CDU + Greens) or a "grand coalition" (CDU + SPD). The first is ideal for Ukraine, the second is acceptable.

Yuriy Bohdanov, Facebook

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