Natallia Radzina: Failure Of Russians In Kursk Region Also Hit Lukashenka

The situation in Belarus is still unpredictable.

Natallia Radzina, the Editor-in-Chief of Charter97.org, became a guest of the YouTube show by the famous Russian journalist Yevgeny Kiselyov.

One of the topics on the air was the attacks of Russian propagandists on Lukashenka. Allegedly, the Belarusian dictator is guilty of the fact that the Ukrainian forces were able to remove troops from under the border with Belarus and use them in the attack on the Kursk region of the Russian Federation. According to Z-bloggers, the Belarusian dictator contributed to this by withdrawing troops from the border with Ukraine.

Natallia Radzina does not believe in the secret deal between Lukashenka and Zelensky behind Putin's back:

— I think the Russians are trying to find someone responsible for their failure. We know that most of Russia's military grouping is now in Ukraine, and its own borders were not protected, which allowed Ukrainian troops to enter the Kursk region.

Therefore, all accusations against Lukashenka like he agreed with Zelensky, and that naive person withdrew troops from the border with Belarus, seem absurd to me.

Firstly, I have not seen anywhere evidence that all troops have indeed withdrawn from the border with Belarus. Secondly, we saw what a guarantor Lukashenka could be when in 2022 he promised the Ukrainian leadership that not a single Russian soldier would enter Ukraine from the territory of Belarus. However, on February 24, the Russians moved to the Kyiv region from the Belarusian territory.

Can the Belarusian military be sent to the war in Ukraine? The Editor-in-Chief of Charter97.org sees this step as a threat to the Russian army:

— The situation has not changed, the Belarusians do not want to fight against Ukraine, and Putin is well aware of this. The behavior of the Belarusian troops in Ukraine will be unpredictable. Belarusians do not want to die for Russian interests. We are not, at our core, imperials. Why should Belarus die for some Putin, for imperial Russia and some of their ephemeral values? There is a high probability that if the Belarusians find themselves on Ukrainian territory (which, God forbid, will never happen), they will surrender en masse. Therefore, the participation of the Belarusian army in the war is dangerous for Putin. I do not believe that he puts pressure on Lukashenka, and the last resists. No, it's a game. Lukashenka all these years, remaining Putin's pet dog, pretended to be a "guarantor of independence". Now he is trying to promote himself as a "defender of the Belarusians" in the domestic field. But this is just propaganda. If Putin wants something from Lukashenka, he will get it. He has all the levers of pressure to get it.

Yevgeny Kiselyov asked Natallia Radzina about the relationship between Putin and Lukashenka. Does the head of the Kremlin really not tolerate the Belarusian dictator and wants to replace him? The Editor-in-Chief of Charter97.org calls not to rely on the fact that the Kremlin will replace Lukashenka and continue to fight:

— Putin obviously does not like Lukashenka. This is noticeable even by the body language when they communicate. But I have been hearing for 30 years that first Yeltsin and then Putin are unhappy with Lukashenka and that the Kremlin can put on another candidate. The last time I heard this was in 2020, when the former head of Belgazprombank, Viktar Babaryka, was considered by many to be a "candidate from the Kremlin". Nevertheless, Babaryka went to prison, and Russia supported Lukashenka in the falsified elections. I am wary of empty hopes that allegedly Lukashenka can be changed at any time. We still have to fight the dictatorship and not play the Moscow scenarios. Whoever Russia replaces Lukashenka with, it will not be a Belarusian presidential candidate, this person will not defend the national interests of our country.

However, there are grounds for these conversations. We have seen that Lukashenka is not in the best shape. He will be 70 years old on August 31. He clearly has a number of chronic diseases, is overweight, it is difficult for him to walk, and sometimes he cannot move at all. He has to be transported, as it was at the military parade in Moscow on May 9. Therefore, I do not exclude the replacement of Lukashenka with another Kremlin's puppet.

Natallia Radzina believes that the establishment sees Lukashenka's inability to lead the country:

— We are not the only ones who understand that Lukashenka is a loser. Moreover, he is not able to govern the country today, he surrendered it to Russia. Belarusian officials understand this. They know that the war that Putin unleashed not only against Ukraine, but also against the entire West, into which Belarus was drawn, and it will not end well.

Therefore, I hope for the prudence of some representatives of the Belarusian establishment that they will be able to play some kind of game. It is difficult for me to estimate this possiblity in the current situation, but it seems to me that a window of opportunity is opening up in Belarus.

Yevgeny Kiselyov touched upon the revolution in Bangladesh, where protesters forced Prime Minister Sheikh Hasin, who had been in power since 1996, to flee the country. Could this happen in Belarus? Natallia Radzina believes that sudden protests in our country should not be ruled out:

— No one expected protests in Belarus in 2020, except for a few opposition leaders. I also was constantly talking about it, as well as Andrei Sannikov and Dzmitry Bandarenka. No one believed it. Including those who later called themselves the leaders of this revolution — Tsikhanouskaia and Latushka. Tsikhanouskaia was not in any opposition at that time, and Latushka faithfully served the Lukashenka regime. We said that there would be a revolution, because we felt the mood of the people.

I will say that the mood of Belarusians has not changed much over the past four years. Yes, of course, we are talking about brutal repression inside the country, but the hatred for the regime has remained the same. If there is hatred, it accumulates, then it will eventually come out. In what form — we'll see. But yes, it can happen unexpectedly, as in Bangladesh. Although no one expected that such a popular explosion would occur in this country. Change always happens unexpectedly.

One of the factors for the success of the revolution in Bangladesh was the support of the army. The Editor-in-Chief of the Charter97.org website expressed the opinion that at some point the security forces could go over to the side of the Belarusian people:

— In 2020, unfortunately, they did not, as they saw that Moscow supported Lukashenka. But if there is no support for Russia, problems will begin in Russia (and as a result of the war this is inevitable), then I am convinced that the army and part of the Belarusian security services will go over to the side of the people.

I think that during these four years there have also been changes in their minds. I do not think that they all like to participate in repression. Yes, there is a part (I am sure that it is small) that arrests opposition activists for money, for titles, for sadistic pleasure, seeking for them everywhere, beats and tortures them. There cannot be a majority of such people.

Most, unfortunately, do not yet know what to do with Lukashenka. However, I am sure that there is dissatisfaction among the security services. At a certain point, when they realize that the regime has weakened, that Russia will not protect the criminals who are in power, I think they will side with the people.

Natallia Radzina believes that if Putin tries to remove Lukashenka, the situation will become even more unpredictable:

— This will be another window of opportunity. If Russia decides to remove Lukashenka, the behavior of part of the officials, the security services and the army will be unpredictable. I do not think that most Belarusian officials want to become small Russian clerks. They want to be officials in their own country. The same applies to the military. They do not want to be thrown to Vuhledar, Bakhmut, Kupiansk and Pokrovsk. They want to live in sovereign Belarus, not to participate in any Russian wars.

If Putin decides to de facto annex Belarus to Russia, including by appointing another puppet, this will cause serious processes.

The social base for protests, according to the Belarusian journalist, remains in the country:

— Not everyone left. Yes, today people cannot openly oppose. But no one want Lukashenka. Belarusians see the absurdity of the current situation. They see the cruelty of this system and understand that these authorities have no future if they pursue such a policy.

The situation in the country is not easy, and the potential for protests remains. The question is when this will happen. There must be conditions for this.

Natallia Radzina is sure that Russian propaganda has no chance to win Belarusians over to its side, because our people want to live in a European way:

— Do you know what the main difference between Belarusians and Russians is? In Belarus, according to 2019 data, about 70% of the people visited the European Union. Belarusians know how they live in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, the Czech Republic and other countries. Belarusians want to live like in Europe.

Yes, many Belarusians have gone through earnings in Russia, construction projects. They faced a cynical attitude towards themselves there. They were considered slaves there, kept in unbearable conditions, often left without salaries.

Today, if Belarusian men go to work, it is Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and other EU countries. Therefore, Belarusians want to go to Europe.

Historically, Belarus is a European country. Our statehood began from the Principality of Polatsk, then we had a common state with the Lithuanians and Ukrainians — the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, which later, together with Poland, created the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth. Historically, we were part of Europe. We were never Moscow-centric and did not look at Moscow. Then there were more than 200 years of occupation by the Russian Empire, then another empire — the Soviet Union, then Lukashenka's puppet pro-Russian administration imposed on the Belarusian society a certain idea that supposedly without Russia we could not exist. No – that's not true. The mentality of Belarusians has always remained European. Belarusians are a completely different nation. I could compare us with Poles, Lithuanians, but not with Russians.

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