Political Scientist: That's A Red Flag For Lukashenka

Will Venezuela decide the dictator's fate?

After the meeting with Putin, Lukashenka held a meeting at which he said that one of the main topics of conversation at Valaam was oil — a new pricing formula, a utilization fee, and prepayment for it.

Why did these questions arise? The Charter97.org website talked about this with political scientist Dzmitry Balkunets:

— Let's start with the fact that yesterday Putin signed an agreement on the unified energy market of Belarus and the Russian Federation. I believe that now they have agreed on common rules of work in this single energy market. The main issues related to electricity, gas and oil could be settled.

To date, for the Russian Federation, Belarus is a very important partner in terms of both sales and processing of energy resources, so that oil products enter the Russian market. For well-known reasons, namely, the failure of a number of Russian oil refineries.

Now it is important for Belarus to receive oil products and gas at the lowest prices. I think that this issue has been settled, taking into account the difficulties that Russia has today in the world markets for sales of both gas and oil. In this regard, Russia made certain concessions. This is also beneficial for the Kremlin, given the fact that it is maximally now involving Belarus in the chain of cooperation in a number of areas.

— What, in your opinion, could be the closed topics of conversations between Putin and Lukashenka?

— As for other issues that were discussed there, this is the general situation in the region, the war in Ukraine, the involvement of Belarusian enterprises in the Russian market.

I also think that the issue related to the sanctions policy and the upcoming "presidential elections" in Belarus was touched upon. There are no more than 9 months left before their start.

It is necessary to pay attention to how the Kremlin presented this meeting and in what form Lukashenka was presented.

Russian news agencies showed the dictator in a very unsightly way. I would note that he did not stay for the solemn events in St. Petersburg (apparently, there was no mood), and yesterday, upon returning from a three-day business trip, he held an extended meeting, where he raised the issues that he had previously discussed with Putin.

I would also like to note that Putin's meeting with Lukashenka took place without the participation (at least publicly) of high-ranking officials. This could be a red flag for Lukashenka, given his health condition.

I believe that the Kremlin can (although Lukashenka now suits them as much as possible) insist that Lukashenka does not participate in the next "presidential election". Especially against the background of the events that are happening right now in Venezuela.

I think it's also an important touchstone. If the people in Venezuela defend their right to choose, this will have a painful effect on the state of other authoritarian countries.

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