Grigorij Mesežnikov: Not Everything Is In Order In Lukashenka's Entourage

It is dangerous for a dictator to leave the country.

Lukashenka did not dare to go to South Africa for the BRICS summit, and sent his foreign minister there. Is it fear, or is it not appropriate for a vassal to attend an event that his overlord Putin was afraid to go to?

The website Charter97.org asked Grigorij Mesežnikov, a Slovak political scientist, co-founder of the Institute for Public Affairs (IVO) in Bratislava, about this:

I think both the first and the second. If Lukashenka appears there, but Putin does not, then this may be perceived as insufficient solidarity with his master. In my opinion, there are also practical considerations.

Now it is dangerous for Lukashenka to leave the country. Although he has concentrated political power, he does not have complete confidence that nothing will happen in his absence. He could take this into account when making a decision.

— Is Lukashenka afraid for the situation inside Belarus?

— Yes. First, he is a paranoid person. He is afraid of everything and, I note, he has reason to be afraid that something might start. The people who will replace him during his absence may not be confident enough in their decisions if, say, protests, demonstrations, or something like that begin.

This is generally characteristic of regimes of this type, when personal presence, direct leadership of local dictators plays a big role. Then loyalty can be ensured, and the possibility that some unpleasant breakthrough will occur is less.

— Last week, Lukashenka again announced that he would continue taking away Ukrainian children. Together with Putin, they finance this issue. Why does the Belarusian dictator say out loud what can be used against him in court?

— He is an accomplice in the crime, because of which Putin is now put on the wanted list. The fact is that he does not care much about the way he is perceived in the West. Lukashenka is sure that nothing will happen to him. Allegedly, he has sufficient protection due to the fact that Putin is now in the same situation. That is, the Belarusian dictator lets it slip thus creating conditions for being accused, and Putin already has a warrant issued for him.

Lukashenka is already completely cut off from the rest of the world, except for Russia and its satellites. He directly connected his fate with Putin's dictatorial regime. He rules the country in the same way as Putin, and perhaps even more harshly.

If Lukashenka had been a little smarter, he would have sought to smooth over his participation in the abduction of Ukrainian children, and here he openly says that he contributes to the commission of war crimes.

Lukashenka also draws the state, which, as he claims, he leads, into these actions. In fact, this is a betrayal of the national interests of Belarus.

— If Lukashenka receives an arrest warrant, can his entourage give him up in exchange for some preferences?

— To be honest, I don’t know how it all works in Belarus, but if such a situation arose in Russia, then I think that part of the Russian elite, dissatisfied with what is happening, could betray Putin.

For example, everything that happened in connection with Prigozhin's coup attempt showed that Putin does not have enough support to fully protect him.

As for Lukashenka, even the refusal to fly to South Africa can be a signal that not everything is in order in his environment. Events may occur that will weaken him or, let's say optimistically, even end his reign. I can imagine this, but, I emphasize, I have little information for a clear conclusion.