Volodymyr Fesenko: Inspection Is Coming To Lukashenka

The Minister of Defence of China will pay an inspection visit to Belarus.

Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu is on his way to Belarus. It is noteworthy that the Chinese military officials will visit our country against the backdrop of Lukashenka's conflict with Poland.

Warsaw stated that it was ready to close the railway communication with Belarus, and this would hit China painfully, the lion's share of Chinese transit to Europe passes through our country. Is Li Shangfu's visit to Belarus accidental?

Journalists of Charter97.org asked about this prominent Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, the head of the Penta Center for Applied Political Research:

– We are to take into account that the Chinese Defence Minister pays a return visit to Russia. Shoigu has already been to China. The visit to Moscow is the main one. They decided to visit Belarus along the way, taking into account the special relationship between Lukashenka and the leadership of China. To assess the current situation, in particular, on the Belarusian-Polish border.

Escalation is definitely not beneficial for China's interests. It is very important for them to maintain stable international trade. It is very noticeable, by the way, that Lukashenka's latest statements are quite peaceful. I mean the words about “good relations with Poland”, that Belarus is “ready to talk” and so on.

They can also talk about contacts with the Belarusian military During the visit, but more it is an assessment of the military situation on the border with Ukraine and Poland. There may be talk about some sort of joint military plans. The China representatives will most likely say that China is not interested in drawing Belarus into the war and in the escalation of the military situation around the country.

As for the border closure, I think this is a matter of negotiations, however, I can say that the EU will fight against the so-called ‘false transit’. This is one of the ways to bypass the sanctions, when goods from the EU allegedly go, for example, to Kazakhstan, Central Asia or China, but in fact, they end up in Russia. The restrictions in this regard will be really significant.

But there are no direct links to the current tension. It’s more about the course of an international visit. Since the Chinese Defence Minister went to Russia, it is logical for him to visit Belarus as well. Moreover, the current situation in Belarus and around it, let's say, concerns China, therefore, I would like to emphasize that the visit is connected with the general political situation around your country.

– China has a negative attitude towards the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus. Can the Chinese Minister conduct an inspection of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus?

– No. These are not Chinese weapons but Russian. I don't think there will be any kind of inspection, not the case.

You know, I have a strong suspicion that China knew about Russia's plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus behind its common position against the deployment of nuclear weapons in third countries.

Moreover, I think that Moscow and Minsk received China's consent to this. It was an action, let's say, directed against NATO. China, which perceives the US and NATO as its main adversaries, reacted calmly to the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus. I have a strong suspicion that the Chinese were aware.

– Nevertheless, you mentioned that China is not interested in escalation.

– In this case, formally it looks like an escalation, but I think that Moscow and Minsk assured China that these nuclear weapons would not be used and that this was only a way to deter and impact on NATO.

I can tell you that my diplomatic sources informed me that China considered this deployment as a way of putting pressure on the West in order to force it into negotiations on Ukraine.

This is a somewhat naive point of view. After all, as the practice has shown (most experts predicted this), such naive ways of influence do not work now. It's not that situation.

Russian pressure on the West did not work before the start of a full-scale war. Let me remind you that there was an ultimatum from Putin to the US and NATO, and it did not work. It is somewhat naive to hope that such direct pressure will force the West to make some concessions. This is an overly simplistic approach, but for some reason China thought it might work.

China is now concerned about the escalation of the military situation in Ukraine and the growth of political and military tension around Belarus.

This is the main reason for coming. Not just tension between Belarus and Poland, through Lukashenka’s fault, who started the game with the Wagnerites at Putin's suggestion.

China needs to assess and inspect the situation. They will carry out such an inspection of the military-political situation around Belarus.

– Will Beijing somehow try to influence Lukashenka?

– First, China will keep Belarus and the Lukashenka regime in its orbit. Second, Belarus will continue to simultaneously focus on both Moscow and Beijing with the strengthening of the influence of the latter.

The fact that Lukashenka's son Mikalai is studying in Beijing is no coincidence. This is also a consequence of the growing influence of Beijing, which will maintain this duality. It suits Beijing for now, but, I’d like to repeat, they will keep increasing their influence on Lukashenka and his regime.

China won’t take any specific action so far. There may be signals that it is not necessary to heat up the tension in relations with Poland and the NATO member states too much. Deterrence is one thing but provoking conflict is quite another.

Signals are quite possible. However, I don’t think they will do anything significant like joint actions or statements. It just doesn't make sense right now.

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