Political Scientist: Lukashenka Wilfully Let ‘Black Swan’ In

The Belarusian ruler failed with self-promotion.

Lukashenka is aggravating, talking about a nuclear bomb "which will destroy a million people," as well as "excursions of the Wagnerites to Warsaw and Rzeszów".

Why is the Belarusian dictator raising the stakes? Charter97.org asked political analyst Anatol Kotau about it:

– He [Lukashenka - Ed.] has several reasons for making these statements. First, Putin does not say everything he wants to say, so he uses Lukashenka to promote his strange ideas. He is trying to scare Europe with at least something: the Wagner Group, tactical nuclear weapons. That is what Lukashenka is used for.

Secondly, Lukashenka, speaking about the Wagner Group, sends a certain signal to the West: “Let's sit down at the negotiating table before it's too late, otherwise I'll hold them back with all my strength before some troubles begin for Warsaw or Rzeszów.”

On the one hand, Lukashenka says what he wants, but for certain reasons, Putin is embarrassed to voice it, on the other hand, he uses the situation to try once again to be at the negotiating table.

– There is another, it would seem, sensitive moment for him - a possible ICC warrant for him. However, even here Lukashenka openly declares: “I gave the order to take the children out of Ukraine.” It seems that he is looking for a warrant.

– He is not looking for a warrant, but he knows that so far (in several months, for sure) no warrant will be issued for him, although he is afraid of this.

It must be understood that the head of the Belarus Red Cross, Dzmitry Shevtsou, and not Lukashenka, will be the first warrant candidate.

After all, someone must initiate the process in order to issue a warrant. I’m talking about Ukraine here. Ukraine has indicated that Shevtsov is a priority warrant candidate.

– What is the most significant “black swan” for Lukashenka: the ICC or the Wagnerites and nuclear weapons?

– The most interesting thing is that the “black swan” is already there. It’s the Wagner troops. Not from the point of view of the reaction of the international community or neighbouring countries, but precisely from the point of view of obtaining an additional tool of control over Lukashenka’s actions by Putin.

Lukashenka hoped for self-promotion and other political points by intervening in the settlement of the crisis with the so-called rebellion by Yevgeny Prigozhin in Russia. In fact, he received several thousand armed Wagner mercenaries on his territory, who definitely do not obey him. They have retained full loyalty to the Kremlin.

It turns out that Lukashenka let the “black swan” in on his own. The Kremlin has all the tools to exercise either control over the transit of power in Belarus or to force this transit in the interests of Moscow.

The neighbours of Belarus (Poland and the Baltic countries) are using the Wagner situation as an excuse to strengthen their military security. The NATO Eastern flank will be fully protected in a month or two also against some strange and absolutely illogical raids by the Wagnerites on one of these states.

Here, the analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (USA) are absolutely right that the Wagner PMC does not pose a serious military threat to the neighbouring countries of Belarus even if there is some kind of heavy weapon.

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