Alexander Fridman: Nomenklatura Person Can Send Lukashenka To The Hague

Clouds are gathering over the Belarusian ruler.

Political scientist and historian Alexander Fridman, in an interview with Charter97.org, commented on the cancellation of Putin's trip to the BRICS summit in the Republic of South Africa, where he could be arrested on a warrant from the International Criminal Court, and also assessed the prospects for Lukashenka to end up in the Hague:

— Let's start with the cancellation of Putin's trip to the BRICS summit in South Africa. Why didn't the head of the Kremlin go to the summit?

— I think South Africa could not or did not want to give guarantees. South Africa is a democratic state, this topic has become an internal political issue for them, the opposition decided to take advantage of it. The opposition put forward demands that Putin be arrested, that the government explain how it would behave.

President Cyril Ramaphosa has made conflicting statements. On the one hand, he sees no reason why the warrant was issued, and on the other, that it will have to be executed. Why did it look weird? In the case of South Africa, there was a precedent. The country was visited by the then President of Sudan, al-Bashir, against whom a warrant was issued. Then South Africa ignored the warrant and did not arrest him. But this is al-Bashir, a figure of a smaller scale.

I can imagine that there was a lot of pressure on South Africa. They could have been told that if they accepted Putin and he came and went triumphantly, then South Africa would be in trouble. Western countries, primarily the United States, Great Britain and the European Union, are a very important partner for them. Therefore, South Africa did not want to fight with the European Union on this issue.

Apparently, the South African authorities were consulting with Moscow about various formats for the visit, that Putin would participate by video link, and the delegation would be headed by Lavrov. And Russia, accordingly, tried to scare them.

Russia and the USSR have an old tradition in their relations with African countries. On the one hand, they emphasize that they have nothing to do with colonialism, on the other hand, racism towards African countries is very common. I think that in Moscow they were thinking in this way: “Who are they in South Africa to set any conditions and express something.”

As a result, they did not come to a common denominator, South Africa decided to be proactive and announced itself that Putin would not come. It matters a lot who did it. It was not the Kremlin that announced this, but South Africa, the Kremlin had to confirm this. Therefore, Russia was not in a very good position, let's call it that. Now they are trying to disavow everything: Putin will fully participate. It's funny. Yes, he will be connected via video link, but physically he will not be in South Africa. The warrant created real political problems for him. Putin is, to put it mildly, not happy.

— Did it hit the image of the head of the Kremlin a lot?

— It hit very hard. After all, they puffed cheeks and laughed at the Hague. “If Putin is arrested, we will respond and there will be war.” However, it all crashed against the rock of reality. The reality is such: Russia is a nuclear power, but even South Africa, which is not a world superpower, has decided that “We don't need Putin here”.

This showed Putin that he is an outcast. Perhaps this is one of the largest international defeats of Russia since the beginning of the war.

— This week, The Telegraph published an article about Lukashenka's involvement in the abductions of Ukrainian children. How much closer does this story bring the issuance of a warrant from the ICC?

— Clouds are gathering over Lukashenka. An article is one, a resolution of the European Parliament calling for a warrant is two, there are also Shautsou’s strange confessions and the reaction of the International Red Cross to them. All this together increases the probability of issuing an order.

If we were talking a week ago, then I would say that it is 50/50. Now there is more than a 50% chance that the order will be issued. There are, of course, various analysts, including those in Russia, who believe that a warrant for Lukashenka's arrest is inevitable. I don't think so, but I think it's possible.

For Lukashenka, this is more unpleasant. After all, Putin is at the head of a nuclear superpower. And Lukashenka only shouts that he has nuclear weapons, but everyone understands that Belarus is not a nuclear state. This is the first moment. The second point is that many of those for whom the arrest warrant was issued, he knew personally. This is Gaddafi, and Miloševič, and al-Bashir, whom I have already mentioned. Lukashenka saw how their fate ended.

Yes, al-Bashir has not yet been extradited, there is a bargaining going on, but now in Sudan there is no time for him, there are their own showdowns. They simply had no time to extradite Gaddafi, and Miloševič ended up in the Hague.

Lukashenka is very close to the situation with Miloševič, since this is Europe. After all, Lukashenka, as he likes to say, was “immersed in the Balkan-Yugoslav theme”. The example is very eloquent. After all, after the collapse of the Miloševič regime, the Serbian authorities solved two problems at once. On the one hand, they betrayed him and got relations with the EU, opened up a European perspective for themselves, and on the other hand, they got rid of a strong political rival.

I think that Lukashenka is able to extrapolate the situation of Miloševič on himself. Even if the next head of Belarus is a person from the nomenklatura, if a warrant is issued, then with the help of the extradition of Lukashenka it will be possible to solve several problems at once — both whitewash themselves and negotiate with the West. Lukashenka sees what problems the very fact of issuing a warrant is connected with. He would like to ride around the world wherever he is invited. He would not want to think and worry “they will extradite me — they will not extradite me”, “they will capture me — they will not capture me”. Here Putin threatens with nuclear weapons in order to participate in the BRICS summit, but what will Lukashenka threaten with?

— It turns out that the likelihood that Lukashenka will end up in the Hague is higher than in the case of Putin?

— Yes, sure. The weaker the country, the weaker the politician, the greater the chances. This has never happened in the case of Russia. Still, the president of a nuclear power, no one knows how it can be. And such dictators as Lukashenka, quite often received warrants. Okay, Miloševič, he participated in hostilities, started wars, was responsible for ethnic cleansing. But on the scale of Serbia and Belarus, there are no radical differences. As with African countries. Therefore, it is much easier to bring such a figure to the Hague.

— If Lukashenka is afraid of an arrest warrant, why does he openly admit then that he participated in taking children away, or why does he not give the command to silence all these people likeTalai, Shautsou, Gruzdzev sisters and so on?

— I think the game is on. They are well aware that the issue of a warrant is a matter of evidence, a legal issue. Why was a warrant issued for Putin's arrest? He was set up by Lvova-Belova, who at every step emphasized that “Putin did it”. In Belarus, they went the other way. Talai and Shautsou take everything on themselves, they do not say: we have fulfilled the will of Lukashenka. Shautsou's statements are especially interesting. He got activated in connection with a possible warrant. I think Shautsou's task is to take up maximum responsibility. To do this, they will use Talai. They say, okay, issue warrants for these two, but don’t touch Lukashenka.

— Let's simulate the situation, under what conditions could the Belarusian ruler be brought before the ICC?

— The conditions are very simple. A change of power in Belarus, or his arrest somewhere outside the country.

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