'NATO Leadership Warns Lukashenka He Might Be Inadvertently Knocked Down'

The alliance has sent an important signal to both Putin and the Belarusian dictator.

On July 11, the NATO summit starts in Vilnius. Coordinator of the European Belarus civil campaign Zmitser Bandarenka believes that the Alliance countries have warned Lukashenka about a tough response to possible provocations. The opposition politician spoke about this and other issues in an interview with Charter97.org.

- You've suggested that Lukashenka might be involved in Yevgeny Prigozhin's mutiny. So why is the Wagner PMC ringleader not rushing to his accomplice to Belarus?

- Because the latter betrayed and deceived him. So he does not hurry, knowing that one could not trust Lukashenka before, and now even less so.

In support of my version I will cite Lukashenka's latest statement that a brigade of the Belarusian special forces was to be sent to Moscow. Just think about it, this is another humiliation for Putin. Couldn't they defend Moscow without the Belarusian special forces?

In fact, it was a joint game with Prigozhin. At some point, Lukashenka could have moved his special forces to Moscow to support the putsch, but first some Russian brigades or divisions had to take Prigozhin's side. But this did not happen.

Now we are witnessing a situation where no one believes anyone, but the "collective Putin" does not have the strength to deal with the traitors, because there are too many of them: Lukashenka, Prigozhin, and dozens of other generals and officials. "Collective Putin" knows everything, but cannot do anything, because the situation is not in his favour.

- General Surovikin, who is associated with the Wagner PMC, is detained in Russia. Meanwhile, Prigozhin gets all his arrested property back, and he travels freely around the country. Who actually won in the end after the mutiny in Russia?

- It was the Russian authorities who lost. Surovikin was jailed because he got too many "favours" from the Kremlin, and then he supported the mutiny. However, he is just a military man, so he was dismissed and is being interrogated. Lukashenka and Prigozhin, on the other hand, know too much, for Belarus has long been a smuggling hub for Kremlin groups, with cheap oil flowing into Belarus and oil products from it being resold to Russian "subsidiaries" in Rotterdam and Birmingham, which were supposedly Western firms. This money did not go to Russia as a state, but went to enrich specific individuals. The game was for tens of billions of dollars, Lukashenka was in on it and knows everything.

Prigozhin, as we know, was "Putin's wallet", who was hiding gold, diamonds "under palm trees" in various exotic countries. Lukashenka was also involved in all these dealings. No wonder it was reported that initially it was Sheiman, responsible for the dirty business with Lukashenka, who was in charge of negotiations with Prigozhin.

Putin and his closest entourage cannot do anything in this situation, because then the question arises: what were they after? They have been robbing and hiding it all for so many years, and now they are going to lose everything?

Mop-ups will follow, but I believe we will see them later.

- The camps for the Russian mobilised have been liquidated in Belarus. What can this be connected with?

- First of all, in my opinion, with the NATO summit in Vilnius. I want to remind you, that the distance from Vilnius to Minsk is 200 kilometres, and to the border with Belarus - less than 40. It has already been announced that the President of the United States, heads of other countries will come to the summit. We can see that dozens of new ships have entered the Baltic Sea in order to ensure security of the summit; moreover, they are not just "ships", but are carriers of nuclear, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, with their own air defence systems that cover the sky for hundreds of kilometres. Satellite and reconnaissance groupings will probably be deployed. Every bush on the territory of Belarus will be transparent to NATO. We see that Germany, where the biggest NATO Air Force exercise took place at the end of June, has moved its air defence system. Poland has sent several thousand of its troops to the region. Hundreds of thousands of NATO rapid reaction soldiers have been put on full alert.

Lukashenka has been warned that not only his reckless actions, but also his words, may lead to "knocking him down inadvertently" to ensure security from terrorists. We know that the Wagner fighters are recognized as terrorists by many countries. It may end very badly for Lukashenka. The decision-making centres in Belarus and the security and law-enforcement agencies may be hit. Lukashenka simply "lifted his paws", liquidated the camps for the mobilized and immediately made a statement that "Zhenya is not here, Zhenya is not coming" and "there will be no Wagner fighters". On the eve of the Summit echelons of Russian troops were moved out of Belarus.

- What can we expect from the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius?

- This is a landmark event. The country where the summit is to be held is determined a couple of years before the meeting, but by doing so, the US and NATO leadership have shown how important our region is to world security. It is a signal to both the Belarusian dictator and Putin that NATO is standing firm here. Putin has aggravated his position. By starting the war in Ukraine, he has made the Baltic Sea an inner lake for NATO. The fact that Jens Stoltenberg is still in office for a year is not because of any disagreement, but a clear signal that the "Stoltenberg Line" - determined opposition to aggressors - will be continued.

The redeployment of air defence systems, air and missile forces, rapid reaction forces, reconnaissance forces to our region shows that NATO countries are determined.

It was hinted to Putin not to "mess around" with various provocations in Ukraine. As I said, Vilnius is close to Minsk, as well as to St. Petersburg. The Baltic grouping in Kaliningrad region can simply cease to exist. The Alliance shows that it is very determined, Russia must stop the war by withdrawing troops from the occupied territory of Ukraine. The balance of power today is such that securing the NATO summit in Vilnius could be seen as a rehearsal for opening a second front in Ukraine's favour.

- The FT reported last week that the US, Britain and France had warned Putin that they would retaliate with a strike if Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Now, the Kremlin may have been warned that there should be no Russian mercenaries on the borders with NATO. Will the West continually talk to Russia from a position of strength?

- I have repeatedly said that the most adequate politicians in the West are the military, because they rely on facts and an assessment of the enemy's strength. That is why the voices of NATO generals and admirals are more powerful today.

This is also why NATO and European Union politicians are taking a stronger and clearer stance.

Naturally, Prigozhin's mutiny prompted the West to take new decisions. The West has realised three things. First, Russia is very weak, the government can change at any moment. The second thing is that there are forces in Russia who are in favour of ending the war in Ukraine, this was one of the points made by Prigozhin and the people who were involved in the mutiny. The third is that the West has heard a signal from part of the Russian leadership that it is willing to negotiate to resolve this crisis.

We know that the NATO leadership does not want nuclear weapons to fall into the hands of a few Prigozhin or Putin, so the alliance is saying: nuclear weapons are a very serious thing, we are ready to help Russia to ensure control over its nuclear weapons.

There have even been tacit talks in Washington between former US national security chiefs and Lavrov himself. This does not necessarily mean weakening of the U.S. position, but it does indicate a repetition of the situation with the USSR, which was rattling weapons, and then agreed to cut everything it could and asked for chicken legs from Bush.

I think this situation is repeating itself with a new turn of the spiral of history. There are people in the West who understand that they need to be consistent here and act from a position of strength, like Reagan did in his time, because the Russian 'party of honourable surrender', according to Piontkovsky, would like this honourable surrender, like Gorbachev did in his time, but the key word in this phrase is surrender. I think that's where it's all heading.

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