AFI Colonel: Moscow Empire Is Drowning

We just saw the first round of confrontation between the “Kremlin towers”.

The two-day mutiny of Wagner PMC boss Yevgeny Prigozhin has greatly shaken Putin's regime. The world watched the “Wagnerites” advancing on Moscow without resistance.

Who is really behind the rebellion? How did it affect the situation at the front? The Charter97.org website talked about this with Ukrainian military analyst, reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Petro Chernyk.

— Did Prigozhin's rebellion affect the situation at the front in Ukraine?

—The fighting on the day of the riot was much tougher than, say, usually. There is one very serious nuance that lurks in both your and our media spaces. Most of us, and I do not belong to this group of people, believe that a regime change in Russia will change something strategically in the Ukrainian-Russian war. It will not.

For Moscow imperialism, whatever its face, the existence of an independent Ukrainian state is unacceptable. This is a fundamental aspect, there will be no changes here.

Russia will be able to look towards Ukraine normally and soberly only when it shrinks to the borders of the year 1471 (even before the annexation of Veliky Novgorod). On its territory, 25-30 states are formed, and what remains of the Russians will undergo 60 years of sanitation, purification, as the Nazis did. Then there will be partnerships between us.

Let me emphasize that identity is the strongest social glue of homo sapiens. Russians have their own identity, which is very well defined in a simple word — great power.

— If Russia gets mired in turmoil, how would it affect Ukraine and Belarus?

— Let's proceed from the way the great Niccolo Machiavelli said: “If you want to know how it will be, study how it was”. Let's then learn what Russian turmoil is. There have been three great turmoils in Russian history. This is the uprising of Stepan Razin, Emelyan Pugachev and the Bolsheviks. If we talk about Razin, then it was nothing more than a struggle between two clans - the Miloslavsky and Naryshkin for the crown of the king. All in vain, they were suppressed.

Pugachev's uprising is probably the only one that was organized from below and did not have an elite part. It was suppressed also, and Pugachev, meanwhile, was a native of the Ukrainian Kharkiv Palanka. It remains a question whether he was a Russian after all.

The Bolsheviks were successful, but there is a nuance — the Germans supported their coup. Without their organizational, financial and armed support, it is not clear how all this would have turned out. The Germans needed to remove the tsarist empire from the western front. They removed it successfully, but Bolshevism did not change anything in terms of attitude either towards Ukraine or Belarus.

This is the same Moscow empire, only in a different social package. That's all. We want to put some kind of perspective on the turmoil. Yes, turmoil can be crowned with success. Let's say that Prigozhin reached Moscow and demolished Putin. What is changing? Nothing.

Prigozhin is even more of a “Ukraine eater” than Putin. He could decide on those steps that Putin does not dare to take. I mean tactical nuclear strike. In my opinion, it is a mistake to pin any hopes on their turmoil.

Their turmoil will be useful for us only when the Russian Federation is deintegrated. As long as the political space of the Russian Federation is preserved and the worst thing is “greatness”, then we are doomed to fight with them.

— What can be expected in the near future in Russia, analyzing the latest events?

— The first round of open deadly confrontation between the “Kremlin towers” took place. It is very difficult for us to make objective assessments of what is actually happening there and who is playing what cards. Muscovites know how to hide real information. All our analyzes are analytical guesses, but not an expert assessment of the fact.

I am 100% sure that Prigozhin is not an independent “card”. A person who has 25,000 “bayonets” cannot demolish a regime that has at least 400,000 National Guards in its clip, and another half a million army.

This means that this is a map with which one of the “Kremlin towers” probes how far one can go. I admit that it could be Putin himself, in order to see the real opposition to him. He may have cleared them already, but we don't know.

Perhaps this is the “tower” of the FSB Patrushev-Bortnikov, which in this way probes how to “transfer” Putin himself, who decided to go all the way, and the food supply for all these guys is shrinking. In the Russian Federation, a person responsible for the disaster should be appointed. After all, it is a disaster when the “second-best army of the world” cannot take a line of 50 km.

In general, Moscow imperialism is drowning, and those who play this game are well aware that confusion can develop. It is fundamentally important for them to maintain overall political control over the Russian Federation. Who will outplay whom is still impossible to understand.

Let me give you a specific historical example. Beria and Stalin met in a deadly duel. Beria won, but in a matter of hours Khrushchev appeared, who defeated Beria. Nobody noticed Khrushchev, but he was there. This is a historical fact.

In Russia, everything is really getting more complicated, but there is a nuance — not as fast as we would like it to. Recall 1905, when Nicholas II shot columns of workers, and just at that moment they were also defeated in the Russian-Japanese war. It was already clear that the “royal colossus” stood on clay feet, but it fell apart already in 1917 in a duel with the Bolsheviks, supported by the Germans. Unfortunately, the agony of tyranny can be long.

Now the confrontation in Russia is entering an acute phase, but it can be long. I repeat, if the Russian Federation remains in the political sense, then nothing will change for you and me. We will have to fight them. Russia in this form cannot be democratic. It's time to finally learn this historical lesson.

I would also like to add that even if Lukashenka dies tomorrow, in your case only bayonets will free Belarus.

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