Vitaly Portnikov: Lukashenka's Statement About Nuclear Weapons Sounds Helpless

The Belarusian dictator is just a decoration.

Lukashenka spoke about a nuclear apocalypse. The dictator said that Belarus received bombs from Russia three times more powerful than those in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Who is really behind these statements: the Kremlin or the Belarusian dictator? The Charter97.org website talked about this with the well-known Ukrainian political scientist and publicist Vitaliy Portnikov.

– It is quite obvious that when Lukashenka talks about nuclear weapons, he cannot act independently. Moreover, he said it in an interview with Olga Skabeeva, who came to Belarus for this purpose. It is clear that this is an image campaign organized by Moscow. Another signal, which, in my opinion, has two main points. The first is a message to the West that we can use nuclear weapons and not bear responsibility for it. The second thing there is a message to the authorities of Ukraine, that if we launch an attack on you from Belarus, don’t even think about entering its territory and threatening the Lukashenka regime, because we will use nuclear weapons.

However, all this sounds helpless, because even in this situation, Lukashenka emphasizes that he will be forced to call Putin. He will not make the decision. If you imagine such a telephone conversation, when Lukashenka says: “I want to use nuclear weapons,” and Putin refuses him, then it won’t be used. And if you imagine that Putin is calling and saying that he wants to use nuclear weapons, then Lukashenka's opinion will not bother anyone, because he does not dispose of it. It seems to me that these are obvious statements.

To whom are these statements addressed more: the West or Ukraine?

– I think that he scares the West most of all. It is difficult to intimidate Ukraine with nuclear weapons after all the crimes that have been committed on Ukrainian soil and after they say that the blowing up of the Kakhovska Hydroelectric Power Plant by the Russians can be equated with a strike with tactical nuclear weapons.

But the nuclear game with the West is loved by the Russian leadership. This idea that “we can avoid responsibility, no one will force us to answer, since it will not be us”, is what is expressed in the article of the demented Sergei Karaganov, who proposes to use nuclear weapons against European countries and hope that Western countries will not respond.

I can well assume that Karaganov expresses his own opinion in order to please the authorities, but it is quite obvious that such people repeat what they can say on the sidelines. However, they may say this not seriously on the sidelines, but being furious because they cannot realize the plans that the Chekists have been hatching for decades. However, this does not reflect the essence of the problem.

– American historian Yuri Felshtinsky was talking about the following scenario: Putin strikes Warsaw or Vilnius with Lukashenka's hands, and retaliatory strike will target Belarus. Is it possible?

– Putin cannot launch a nuclear strike on Warsaw or Vilnius with the hands of Lukashenka. Lukashenka himself admits this. Only one person has all startup codes - Putin. In order to use nuclear weapons, it is necessary that Putin make such a decision. Officially, Putin can make this decision at the request of Lukashenka, but the responsibility will be on him alone. Belarus is not a nuclear country, Lukashenka cannot use it, only ask. In the same way as NATO countries that do not have nuclear weapons, they can turn to countries that do have them, but the decision to use them will be made not by the President of Poland, not by the President of Latvia, not by the President of Lithuania, but by the President of the United States and the President of France. Simply due to the fact that the presidents of Poland and Lithuania do not have a real ability to use it.

Lukashenka does not either, there must be changes in the very procedure for using nuclear weapons in order for Putin to do something with his hands. To put it simple, Lukashenka should have a nuclear suitcase with codes, and this suitcase should be independent of the one that Putin has.

Let’s say, Belarus should become a nuclear power, like North Korea. After all, Kim Jong Un does not ask Putin whether he should launch missiles or not. There is nothing of the kind in the case of Belarus. I’m surprised by Felshtinsky’s statement in this matter. Lukashenka also tells Skabeeva, "I can call Putin quickly." Yes, of course, Putin can quickly respond. But the decision will be made by Putin, not Lukashenka.

– During one round of Putin's nuclear blackmail, UN National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that Washington had informed the Kremlin that "any use of nuclear weapons would be disastrous for Russia". Will the West address the same messages to Lukashenka?

– The reaction of the West is the right of the West. Nevertheless, Lukashenka's residence, the building of the Ministry of Defence of Belarus, are not decision-making centers. The decision-making centers are located in another city - Moscow. Lukashenka can only act as a decoration for decision-making. It's like in the USSR: nuclear weapons were located on the territory of the Ukrainian SSR, Belarusian SSR and Kazakh SSR, but the decision was made in Moscow. Are strikes possible against Kyiv or Minsk in this situation? Yes, it was possible but only within the framework of the general use of nuclear weapons by the Soviet Union. The kind of weapon for the strike against the decision-making centres is under question. The question about striking or not is a second question. Yes, the blow can be both on the territory of Belarus and on the territory of Russia. After all, the territory of Belarus is part of the “union state” and it is also a target for such a strike, but I emphasize - it is impossible. We do not know if there will be a strike, we do not know if there is a protocol for such actions.

You say that the US National Security Adviser warned Russia that the answer would be conventional weapons. However, the decision to strike with American weapons will be made by the US President, not by an advisor. The decision to strike at the territory of Russia, not the territory of Belarus, can trigger a strike against the territory of the United States.

We do not know known whether any American president would be willing to take on such a responsibility. It's all theory.

Do you have a guarantee that if the United States decides to strike with conventional weapons on the territory of the Russian Federation, the Russian president will not dare to use nuclear weapons against the United States?

– I think no one could give such guarantees.

– That’s why we do not know how the US President will act in the event of a nuclear strike by a non-nuclear state. An unexpected reaction is possible or it may be predictable for Russia. Then we will face distressful uncertainty. Putin is taking advantage of this because such uncertainty will be catastrophic for international relations.

However, I see a lack of common sense in such actions. There was an undermining of the dam of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, a blow of approximately the same force will be delivered by tactical nuclear weapons. And what did it change? So there is also the question of the meaning of all this. After all, the use of nuclear weapons is the last move. There will be no further possible moves.

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