Alexander Friedman: Lukashenka Is Well Aware Of The Course Assigned To Him And Putin

There is no way of avoiding that.

Lukashenka unexpectedly declared that "no one is going to attack Belarus". Political analysts consider that this may be due to the resolution of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe on Lukashenka's involvement in the deportation of Ukrainian children. Is there a link?

The Charter97.org website talked about this with the historian and political analyst Alexander Friedman.

– Of course, it is possible. If you look at everything linked to the Hague theme, Lukashenka does not talk about it. And not only Lukashenka but also his propaganda. There are almost no mentions. If propagandists touch upon this topic, they speak very carefully. There was no harassment from their side really. Their goal is to prevent the public point of view that Lukashenka is threatened by something, or that he may be involved.

On this basis, we can conclude that Lukashenka is deep in this topic, and does not want to raise it, it is extremely unpleasant for him. He understands that the arrest warrant creates serious problems for Putin. I mean the specific story with South Africa, where Putin will not be able to go, although he was going to. Travels to South America are also down for him. Lukashenka understands all this, but would not like to try it on himself.

Another, perhaps even determining factor is the Ukrainian offensive. No matter how Lukashenka keeps a bold face, he is still afraid of it. Ukraine reaffirmed its resolve over the weekend. Of course, we don't know who is behind the explosion of the train with oil products. We do not know if the blow was struck, because it was precisely the Belarusian train. However, the information that is available indicates that the people who did this knew what they were getting into.

Of course, Ukraine will never admit this. It is understandable during wartime, but if we proceed from the fact that it was done by people associated with Kyiv or sympathizing with it, then this story shows that from the point of view of Ukraine, Belarusian goals are justifiable. Yes, there were enough events that showed that Kyiv is ready to act on the territory of Belarus.

I think that if Ukraine is attacked from the territory of Belarus, appropriate decisions will be made in Kyiv. Lukashenka understands this and does everything to de-escalate.

Now the train story is another revealing issue. The Belarusians driving the train could have suffered. Propaganda is trying to hush up this topic in every possible way, not to exacerbate it. I think that Lukashenka’s statement that “no one threatens” is another signal, primarily to Ukraine, that the Belarusian authorities do not want an escalation.

I also would like to recall pragmatic thinking. Belarus is a frontline state. There are enough people who think about it and are afraid that the hostilities may spread to the territory of Belarus. It is not necessary that they sympathize with Ukraine or Russia, that they have a formalized position. They simply fear that Belarus may become an arena of hostilities, they do not want this.

Lukashenka's task in this situation is to somehow calm them down. To say that nothing like this will happen and that it is possible to get out of this situation.

– You said that Lukashenka is afraid of an AFU counteroffensive, but is he afraid of The Hague warrant for him? Does he care?

– I think he cares. If only because he personally knew those people who faced such warrants or were somehow prosecuted due to such warrants.

These are not some stories that he heard somewhere, but the people he met, communicated and whose fate he thought. I'm talking about Slobodan Milosevic, who was brought before the court in The Hague, Saddam Hussein, who was hanged, Muammar Gaddafi, who was not reached by the International Criminal Court, but who was killed. Including former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, who also visited Minsk and remains in a state of limbo.

Lukashenka understands that if such a warrant is issued for him, it will complicate his life. It's not even about travel. He travels to reliable countries. Although, what does reliable mean?..

These people try everything on themselves. They do what benefits them. Why, in fact, if Lukashenka is on their territory at some point and they know that his arrest and transfer can bring benefits to them, why not take advantage of this?

Another scenario. We do not know how Lukashenka's rule will end. What if he is forced to leave Belarus and move to some third country? What are the guarantees that this third country won't extradite him finally? Especially if a warrant is already issued. To put it mildly, it is unpleasant for him in general.

By the way, the fact that both he and Putin do not dismiss this topic, and do not show that they do not care about it, but hush it up, shows that their fears are serious. In the case of Lukashenka, they are even more serious because it is much easier to get him than Putin.

– Can Lukashenka somehow avoid this fate or the current dynamics won't let him perform this manoeuvre anymore? After all, he has done a lot of things already.

– Let's see what he has at the moment. We see that the International Criminal Court followed the simplest scenario in the case of Putin. It did not study the whole complex of crimes that were committed but clung to the story with children because it is quite simple to prove everything in this case. Putin should say “thank you” to his authorized representative Lvova-Belova, who, firstly, documented all her activities, and, secondly, quite clearly indicated who was the organizer.

Lvova-Belova is a very vain and persistent official, demonstrating "successes". The fact that she demonstrated this created the basis for the accusations against her and Putin.

I think that the International Criminal Court will check Lukashenka's involvement in the deportation of Ukrainian children. In this story, it is important to note that Lukashenka handled this topic very carefully. The propagandists saw that Putin received an arrest warrant for the Ukrainian children. They are carefully monitoring that Lukashenka is not exposed to all this.

If you look at how they cover what videos are coming out, you can see the performers there. First of all, Aliaksei Talai and his foundation. But they in no way emphasize that Lukashenka is somehow connected with this and so on, that Talai is actually under Lukashenka's patronage.

But everything is created in such a way that, under bad circumstances, it will always be possible to say that it was Talai's “private initiative”. Here they can blame him. Everything that is happening now may well have serious negative consequences for Talai, it may even end with a warrant for his arrest.

As for Lukashenka, I am not a lawyer, but from what we are seeing now, it is not yet clear to me how the International Criminal Court can justify issuing a warrant for the arrest of Lukashenka in this story with children.

As for the rest of the set of issues related to the crimes that were committed in Ukraine, this will be considered in the future. I think, no matter how the war ends, a criminal case and investigation are definitely yet to come for him.

He's well aware of the course assigned to him and Putin. It doesn't make him feel good. The West does not trust him. If someone there promises him negotiations, a compromise, then this is not yet a guarantee that this will really happen. Even the current situation, without any warrant and with a very hypothetical possibility, is already making his life difficult.

You can’t know what he is thinking about, but I think that Lukashenka understands that he has reached such a level that, in general, there is no way of avoiding that. If he loses power and is forced to stay outside of Belarus, there will always be a chance that they will try to get him.

Another additional negative factor for him is that, unlike many dictators, he still acted in Europe. And there is a completely different attitude to the developments in Europe. There are a huge number of African and other dictators who fled their countries, took refuge and lived there.

Lukashenka's story is still a European one. He became part of the war that is going on in Europe with his actions. Everything here is not simple at all.

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