To Down Dictator

Poland has bargaining power over Lukashenka.

Poland imposed additional sanctions due to the sentence of Andrzej Poczobut. The dictator's so-called Supreme Court upheld this verdict. There is hope that it is the Polish government that will become the main lobbyist in the resumption of sanctions pressure on the Lukashenka regime.

The dictator made a huge number of mistakes. He continued provocations when he needed to just sit down and shut up so that everyone would forget about him and now they added the deployment of nuclear weapons, which only aggravated the situation for him.

It's possible to bring the regime to hysterics without any council meetings and consultations on the imposition of sanctions. Poland is doing everything right and in the very correct order. Thus, they closed the Babrouniki border checkpoint. At this point, it doesn’t matter at all which goods from Belarus are sanctioned and which are not. If Lithuania had followed this example, Lukashenka's regime would have given up at once. You likely remember that the Lukashists drove people to a rally against the closure of the border checkpoint. The agony of the regime at these moments is an extremely interesting case: the dictator abruptly reconsiders the situation after he gets it in the neck, “where the attack on Belarus was being prepared from.” It turns out that he has no enemies and no one attacks.

The issue of the total closure of the border for freight transport from Belarus has been already resolved. It's a strong blow to the dictator. Firstly, the rest of the goods that bring at least some money will no longer go straight to Lukashenka. Secondly, it will finally make it harder to bypass sanctions. Let's be honest, they have already adapted. We also may recall that Russia also sends part of the cargo through Belarus. So, closing the borders will significantly reduce financing missile purchases that are launched against residential buildings in Ukraine.

Of course, this will not lead to a complete stop of transit. There will be routes to Europe for goods deliveries. However, this is a complication of logistics, an increase in the route and an increase in the cost of products as a result. In this case, many European fans of "sanctions" will think a million times about whether it is worth buying at exorbitant prices or whether it is better to try to find alternatives.

Only one moment confuses me. Of course, Poland is fighting for its citizens. The release of Poczobut is a good argument for increasing sanctions pressure on the regime. But in this case, it should be taken into account that thousands of political prisoners are now sitting in prisons, including heroes and leaders of our opposition. The latest news is horrifying: we do not receive any information about them, but only rumours. Poland could demand the release of all Belarusian political prisoners. Indeed, in this case, the Poles have carte blanche and can dictate their conditions to Lukashenka.

Supporting Ukraine, one cannot bypass the topic of Belarus. By helping the Belarusian resistance today, the West is also helping the Ukrainians. The question that Lukashenka is a complete accomplice in this war is no longer being discussed, and the case of exporting Ukrainian children has also made the dictator a war criminal, not to mention the crimes against humanity that he has been committing since 1996. In a war where there is a confrontation between democracy and dictatorship, democracy will certainly win. It’s necessary to down Lukashenka to achieve this victory across Europe, and Putin also will be weaker.

Artsiom Chernikau, especially for the Basta Telegram channel