Andrey Zubov: Hunters Marked Putin With Red Flags

The head of the Kremlin becomes a problem for his entourage.

Are those in the Kremlin afraid of a Ukrainian counteroffensive? How did the International Criminal Court warrant for Putin's arrest affect the Russian elite? Who could be behind the murder of Russian propagandist Vladlen Tatarsky?

The Charter97.org website asked Russian historian and political scientist Andrey Zubov about it.

– I would like to start with the situation around the ICC warrant for Putin. Do you think that this influenced the environment of the head of the Kremlin?

– Apparently, this made a very serious impression on Putin as well as his entourage and Russian society in general. There are such symbolic things that seem to mean little, no one will arrest Putin now, he is not going to either Germany or France, where he can be arrested. However, this is a sign that the world community suspects him, and seriously, since a warrant has been issued for his arrest for committing crimes against humanity. That is, all the people of Russia who follow the news at one moment realized that the world considers this man a criminal. Of course, most of the people who are loyal to Putin and support the war will say: “Well, this is such an attempt at anti-Putin, anti-Russian propaganda, it doesn’t mean anything.” But even they certainly felt uncomfortable deep down.

As for the political elite of Russia, they understand the reality of the events and their meaning much better, they realized that Putin's support for them means only one thing: that they will be considered criminals more or less. And this means that their business and life in the West becomes impossible forever: education, recreation, treatment, etc.

Because of this arrest warrant, Putin turned out to be not a successful leader for his entourage but just a burden that interferes with their lives. These are very serious changes. And Putin personally, of course, is very annoyed, his pride is huge. He feels that he is like a wolf chased by hunters and marked with red flags. This makes him even more annoyed, even angrier.

Nevertheless, I think that this warrant is really significant. This is the real beginning of the war crimes trial of the current Russian leaders. It is significant in a very practical sense, that now, apparently, Ukrainian children will no longer be forcibly Russified like this. In my opinion, they have already begun to return them back little by little and quietly. As I have already said, this order is very significant for Russian society and especially for the elites, who more clearly than previously realized the criminality of this war and the danger of their links.

– One more high-profile event is the murder of propagandist Tatarsky. There are many versions, from the fact that the murder was inspired by the Kremlin in order to distract from failures at the front, to some kind of conflict among the Russian elites. What do you think about it?

– You know, I can't comment on it because an investigation is needed in this case. These versions could be true. It is foolish to speculate here on which version I personally like best. But I can say one thing, which is quite clear, regardless of who killed this man, this murder is perceived in the Kremlin as a very unpleasant moment. It is no coincidence that this Tatarsky was posthumously given the Order of Courage, it is not clear why.

In addition, this, of course, indicates the vulnerability of the entire, let's call it 'Z-company'. These people were under great danger not only at the front, but also in the rear. No one understands who struck - the rival political grouping of the KGB or the real fighters against the war. We must continue to look closely at the signs that will come from the investigation of this case, in which Mrs Trepova has now been accused.

– Kremlin propagandists are clearly concerned about the upcoming counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but is the military and political leadership in the Kremlin afraid of it?

– Certainly, they are afraid. We can say it for sure. They are so scared. You see, the Russian offensive, widely advertised, which was supposed to start either in January or in February, was unsuccessful. Russian troops were able to advance a few kilometers in these months with heavy losses instead of a frontal offensive. No further success is expected at all. So, the countdown for the counterattack has already begun.

They used to have some kind of duel, when they shot in turn. The Russians shot and missed, and now it's time for the Ukrainians to shoot. What if they do not miss, what if they hit the target? Therefore, the Russian duelists are now terrified. Of course, none of us can predict the future, and in general it is bad to predict such things. But the Kremlin is certainly afraid that the Ukrainians will achieve great success. This will cause colossal consequences, up to the departure of Putin. After he was put on the wanted list and an arrest warrant was issued, after all the failures of this war, which turned out to be not a blitzkrieg, but a difficult, protracted, very bloody war for Russia, the country found itself isolated from the world community. Even China is now trying to distance itself from the Russian Federation. In this situation, Putin becomes a problem. If he fails to win this battle, fails to provide serious resistance to the Ukrainian offensive, then it is quite possible that the people around him will no longer associate their political hopes with him. That is, he will be perceived as a loser. Putin personally is very afraid of this, the people who put their bets on him, such as Kadyrov, Prigozhin, and so on, are afraid of this. So the consequence of the success of the Ukrainian offensive will be very serious problems and conflicts in the Russian ruling group. However, It's an open question whether this success will happen, and neither you nor I, no one can be sure about this now.

– In one of your interviews, you said that the Putin regime is doomed not only because of the defeat in the war with Ukraine. What other scenarios could happen for ending the war and changing the situation in Russia?

– Absolutism has long outlived its time, because 200 years ago, relatively simple political and economic structures could be controlled by one ruler as a watchmaker controls the clock. In the 18th century, an absolutist monarch was compared to a watchmaker who fine-tunes the mechanism in a mechanical watch. But now we have the economy, politics, globalization and it differs. Information reaches any place in the world in seconds. For example, something happened in New Zealand - and they instantly learned about it in Greenland. No absolutist regime can effectively manage this situation. It will inevitably lag behind and eventually turn into a reserve of savagery and backwardness similar to North Korea and maybe Iran. The same fate awaits Russia.

The Chinese communists are trying desperately to solve an unsolvable task: to preserve the totalitarian regime and to become open to the world in economic and informational aspects. This is impossible. Of course, China, too, will have to either put an end to totalitarianism or lapse into backwardness. No third option. When Xi Jinping said that authoritarian regimes are better able to cope with the challenges of the times than democratic ones, he was talking nonsense. There was a time when it was so, but that time has passed, 200 or 170 years ago.

Therefore, the Russian regime is doomed. Doomed either to stagnation or liberalization. If there is stagnation, then such a huge country is unlikely to fall out of the world community. In Soviet times, the backlog was obvious precisely because of authoritarian rule and confrontation with the whole world. So hardly anything else. And I think that the elite is aware of this, and they will solve the same problem as in China - how to maintain their power and at the same time open the country to the world. I am sure that this attempt will be just as unsuccessful, but if there was no war, if all this continued peacefully, that is, the regime would gradually tighten the screws, but would not be outwardly aggressive, then it could continue, as in China, enough for a long time. And war, as always, reveals all the advantages and disadvantages. The war with Ukraine exposed some of Russia's drawbacks. The Russian system did not show advantages. By the way, in this sense, I am almost sure that if China decides to take over Taiwan militarily (which is unlikely), then this will also bring down its totalitarian regime, and not lead to its strengthening.