Volodymyr Fesenko On Kremlin Oligarchs' Leaked Conversations: FSB Seems Unhappy With Putin

A chain reaction could start.

Recently, the second conversation of representatives of the Russian elite went viral on the internet, where they speak unflatteringly about the Russian authorities. What do these signals say? Who is behind the leaks?

The Charter97.org website talked about this with a well-known Ukrainian political scientist, head of the Penta Center for Applied Political Research Volodymyr Fesenko.

— They talk about the moods in the Russian business elites, including those close to the Kremlin. This includes the conversations of Farhad Akhmedov and Iosif Prigozhin. After all, they are not oppositionists, but people who occupied a prominent place in the Russian elites. Akhmedov is not just a billionaire, he was a senator, a member of the Federation Council, and held a public post. Iosif Prigozhin is also a well-known person in Russia, absolutely pro-Putin.

These people are close to Putin's key figures and make money on it. What they say is a common sentiment. Nobody is surprised by these statements.

Everyone knows that even Putin's people, businessmen close to them, use foul language when speaking about the current economic and political situation in the Russian Federation. It looks like a dead end and has created a lot of problems: sanctions, loss of business, lack of prospects. Understanding that we have earned, but tomorrow we can lose everything. Therefore, roughly speaking, it is necessary to flee from Russia. As they say, “you need to earn money in Indonesia, not in Russia”.

So, this is a very natural situation. These conversations confirm and reflect the real moods in Russia and its business elites. Most likely, in the elites in general. It's just that not everyone can afford talking about it more or less frankly.

— What do such “leaks” lead to?

— The announcement of such information is, you know, like a chain reaction that will create a pretext for enhancing the effect that “yeah, I'm not the only one who thinks so”.

Indeed, even people close to the top confirm that the situation is bad and could get worse. That is, I emphasize, the effect of a chain reaction will be manifested.

In this regard, I recall the well-known phrase of the legendary literary character: “The devastation begins in the minds”. Here in the minds of the Russian business elites, Putin's elites, the devastation is already beginning. They see it and diagnose it. So, the situation is developing in this direction.

There is another interesting point to consider here. We don't know who is leaking information. There is a version that these are competitors. Another popular version is that the FSB does this to show that everyone is being tapped. But if the FSB leaks, then this is also an indicator. After all, they themselves actually contribute to these moods and their development.

I think that the FSB is also dissatisfied, and by leaking such conversations, they kind of help to strengthen these sentiments. Here is such a paradoxical effect.

— What do you think, are there such conversations in the highest echelons of Russian power?

— You know, to say that there are such conversations, you need to be inside these elites. Moreover, such conversations can only be conducted with trusted persons. Running them with random people is too risky in Putin's regime.

So far, we do not see clear punishments for such disloyal talk, but who knows what will happen next. We see how a wave of denunciations is flooding Russia, and it is intensifying.

Let's see what will happen next. Perhaps the wave of repressions in Russia will affect not only the liberal oppositionists, but also representatives of the elites. Of course, they are cautious and I think that if they have more or less frank conversations, then only with those whom they absolutely trust, but even then they watch out.

As some Russian experts joke, if such a conversation takes place, then three denunciations will appear at once. The participants in the conversation will denounce each other, and the third denunciation will be from the curator of these comrades. In Russia, the Soviet term “curator” is still relevant.

The practice has been preserved and curatorship concerns not only cultural figures, as in Soviet times, but also businessmen. As far as I know, not only conversations are controlled, but also specific actions. For example, whether or not they sell their assets in the Crimea. After 2014, many bought a land plot, a mansion, or at least an apartment there, and some have recently begun to sell. Yeah, once they sell, it means they are no longer loyal.

Or take this recent obvious PR campaign involving Dmitry Peskov. I mean the information that his son allegedly served in the Wagner PMC.

This was done on purpose in order to drown out discontent, a muffled murmur in Russia itself, and especially in the “party of supporters of the war”, who are like, “how come — the patriots are fighting, but where are the children of the elite?” Well, Peskov showed where. I think it's also a gesture of loyalty. He had to do something similar. Putin smears blood on everyone, and any manifestation of disloyalty creates tension around the elite and can at least ruin their future career opportunities, and at the most create security risks.

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