‘Consequences Of Putin’s Insane Decision Affected China’

The Ukrainian diplomat spoke about two negative scenarios for Beijing.

Liang-Chi Evans Chen, a researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR), in the US, believes that Lukashenka went to Beijing to turn Belarus into a hub for Russian military assistance. How likely is the situation that Chinese weapons will go through Belarus to the Russian Federation?

The Charter97.org website spoke about this and not only with Ukrainian diplomat and political scientist and expert of the Maidan of Foreign Affairs foundation Alexander Khara:

– The first and main reason for Lukashenka's visit to Beijing was to enlist support since he has long been trying to balance between China and Russia, after he had no way to the West. Therefore, he needs economic and other types of assistance from China in order to stay in power and not be absorbed by the Russian Federation.

Regarding the supply of weapons, it can be real. The United States intelligence confirms the public indications. At the moment, Xi Jinping is considering two scenarios that are not very good for him. The first is to do nothing, not to support his junior partner Putin, then he will not be able to end this war on terms acceptable to Russia. So, Beijing does not want the concentration of all Western resources on China as the negative consequence of the Russian Federation's withdrawal from the geopolitical scene.

On the other hand, Xi Jinping may choose to support Putin by providing him with the drones, missiles, and ammunition that Russia needs to fight the kind of war that we have seen up to the last moment. This means total break of relations with the US and a negative reaction not only from the Americans but also from the Europeans.

Accordingly, this will mean additional restrictions on export control, that is, chiplets, technologies and all that, additional sanctions on Chinese companies, possibly ousting Chinese companies from Western markets. The American and European markets are extremely important for China. There are also serious social and economic problems in China. The country has not yet completely overcome covid. We saw that last year's GDP growth was 3% growth, not double digits, as it has been for several decades in a row. Only 5% of GDP growth is predicted next year.

Roughly speaking, Xi Jinping must choose either the stability of his regime in the current difficult conditions or the pursuit of mysterious geopolitical benefits that could turn into more serious problems. Therefore, the possibility of providing assistance to Russia from China remains, but this will bear even worse strategic consequences for China than the loss of the Russian Federation.

There is a third way and they are trying to do it. I’m talking about the so-called peace plan, which is not about Ukraine at all. First of all, it is about China and the United States, because most of the main points talk about China's access to the economic, financial and technological resources of the West, and Ukraine is briefly mentioned there. Therefore, trying to freeze the conflict is what the Chinese and possibly the Russians will now try to do, as they understand that they do not have the ability to turn the war. If they succeed in capturing Bakhmut, then it can be presented to the “Russian plebs” as a great victory. Accordingly, at that moment, all sorts of Western "peacekeepers" will start talking about the need for a ceasefire and the start of diplomatic negotiations. China will be quite beneficial for Moscow with these ideas.

– What sanctions could be imposed on the Lukashenka regime if they decide to use Belarus as a bypass to supply weapons from China to Russia?

– I don’t know what other sanctions can be imposed on Belarus, given that it has been on various sanctions lists for a long time. Both for Russia, which has been subject to an unprecedented number of restrictions, and for Belarus, the issue does not sanction imposition, but following sanctions. Moscow, for example, is not discussing the Shaheds [battle UAV - Ed.] with Tehran but the strong support that Iran can provide and with its deep knowledge of how to overcome Western sanctions. It seems to me that it is possible not to impose additional sanctions on Lukashenka and Putin at all, but to make efforts and fulfill everything that was adopted at least by 99.9%.

We see that the Russians have actually created a shadow fleet in order to carry their oil. It’s necessary to fight it, since most of the naval companies that used to serve the Russian Federation have abandoned this, fearing various consequences. Therefore, it became harder for Russia to sell its oil, but still, they can do it. We can say the same about Belarus: the implementation of imposed sanctions is a more important issue than the introduction of additional ones.

– It is widely believed that China is involved in the long-term planning of the situation. How can China's relations with the Russian Federation, Europe and the United States look like in the view of Beijing in the long term, such as a 20-year period?

– It is difficult to say how capable they are of predicting something in such a long term. It was difficult to predict Putin's step on February 24, 2022, was. Putin did a huge geopolitical stupidity, first of all, for Russia, it will finish Russia yet. We will see the collapse of the Russian Federation even during our lifetime. In any case, Putin undermined any geopolitical prospects of the Russian Federation in general: both in democratic, technological and economic terms. It was difficult to predict this, earlier Putin acted more intelligently in terms of realizing his interests in the post-Soviet area.

It could not be calculated, respectively, the consequences of such a stupid decision [attack on Ukraine - Ed.] affected China as well. We see that the United States is ready to provide more weapons to Taiwan, conduct joint exercises, and revise their Taiwan defence plans, taking into account the Ukrainian experience.

Accordingly, European countries listen more to the opinion of the United States, realizing that China may try to resolve the Taiwan issue by force. Therefore, we see restrictions that are being introduced. Germany decided to ban the use of Chinese-made 5G technology just a couple of days ago. This is quite revealing, since China is an extremely important market for Germany.

Therefore, it is difficult to calculate. Clearly, Beijing wants the 21st century to be the century of China. At least Xi Jinping wants to resolve the issue with Taiwan during his lifetime, and put an end to the civil war showing that there is only one China and one economic system, there are no alternative and democratic ones. Therefore, they are preparing their armed forces for a possible takeover of Taiwan by force.

The second point is that last year and the year before last there was an unprecedented increase in all kinds of provocative actions by mainland China. I am talking about a flyby of Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone, and penetration into its maritime belt. By and large, Beijing is increasingly showing its power and is trying to intimidate Taiwan. China will try to concentrate its resources to solve this problem and, in fact, become the world's geopolitical center.

On the other hand, it is necessary to solve the economic problems that have accumulated or emerged as a result of their political system. The extreme vertical power integration and some ambitions have led to severe economic problems. Not to mention that China will have less and less opportunities to accumulate resources due to the decrease in the interaction with America and Europe with.

Therefore, China will try to follow this way - consolidation, the capture of Taiwan most likely. However, such an action will cause opposition and association in some regional unions, for example, in the four QUAD, which includes India, or AUKUS, which includes the British, Americans and Australians. Plus direct bilateral cooperation between the US and South Korea and Japan. The militarization of Japan, by the way, is also a phenomenon of the last year. All this indicates that there are countermeasures and attempts of deterrence against its aggressive policy in the region for all Beijing's plans.

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