ISW Outlines Putin's Major Mistakes In War

US analysts write about the Kremlin chief's fears. 

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is not prepared to make the risky decisions necessary to achieve his maximalist goals on Ukraine. This is stated in a fresh report by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

"The Russian authorities are belatedly implementing large-scale military reforms and treating the situation in Ukraine as a protracted and big war. However, Putin himself continues to adhere to the old model of restrained decision-making. The Kremlin is belatedly carrying out personnel mobilization and reorganization, which it should have actually carried out before invading Ukraine in February 2022," the analysts wrote.

According to the experts, the Russian president probably proceeded from the erroneous assumption that Russian troops could force Ukraine to capitulate without any significant military casualties and viewed a Russian invasion as a limited and acceptable risk.

In turn, Russian security services were expecting that the Ukrainian armed forces would be defeated, and Kremlin propagandists published a pre-written article praising Russia's "victory" on 26 February 2022 ahead of time.

A number of economic moves by the Russian government indicate that Putin and his team mistakenly believed that the West would not go to the serious expenses with regard to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The failure of the offensive against Kyiv forced Putin to face difficult decisions. But the Russian president continues to hesitate about giving orders for the complex changes in the Russian armed forces and in society which are probably necessary to "save" his war.

In particular, Putin is apparently hesitating to announce a second wave of so-called partial mobilisation. At the same time, US and Western officials note that the Kremlin head appears to be inclined to carry out a quiet mobilisation because his fears of the extreme unpopularity of the first wave.

ISW has also observed conflicting reports from Russian State Duma and Kremlin officials regarding changes to mobilisation and conscription protocols, possibly indicating that Putin has ordered these provisions but is unwilling to announce them publicly.

Analysts believe that Putin's reluctance to take risks indicates that he is still unlikely to dare a nuclear escalation or war with NATO. Moscow uses nuclear threats primarily to intimidate the West.

"Obviously, Putin values his domestic status quo and tries to avoid risky policies to achieve his own goals. He also continues to show himself as a man who pays great attention to eliminating risks, even though his perception of the situation diverges from reality," the ISW report said.