Olga Lautman: There Are People Close To Lukashenka Who Can Take Him Out

There are many dissenters in the ranks of the Belarusian army.

Russia can still resort to nuclear provocations in Ukraine. Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) Olga Lautman expressed this opinion in an interview with Charter97.org.

— When Russia launched their full-scale assault on Ukraine, the first thing that they did was go for the power plants and they immediately took Chornobyl, they took Zaporizhzhia NPP, they were firing at the Kharkiv Nuclear Research Facility. Zaporizhzhia is one of the largest nuclear power plants in Europe and at the same time, they turned it into a military base, which is absolutely incredible that they're firing at other towns from a nuclear plant that could take out Europe.

The situation is extremely dangerous. In Chornobyl, for whatever reason, the Russian soldiers were rolling around in radiation dust. So, they're not the smartest and that makes it even more dangerous because they're reckless.

I can't picture for anyone to think it's a good idea to go near radiation that where you know you will get sick.

My other concern is that in early March and April Russia's Defense Ministry was laying the groundwork for the Ukrainian military will sabotage a nuclear plant in order to blame Russia for it. They also at the time were saying that the US smuggled-in dirty bombs (all of that is a lie) and we all know: everything that Russia says is usually their projects or slanders with the groundwork for the future.

I worry that as the last resort, Russia is more than capable of rigging or sabotaging a nuclear plant. And I think people in the West are looking at it the wrong way because they see it as Russia firing nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, they can do as much damage to Europe and to Ukraine by sabotaging a plant inside Ukraine.

— Why do the Russian militaries commit such demonstrably barbaric atrocities? Is it just the way they operate or is this some sort of foreign policy message from Putin?

— This is just the way they operate. First of all, we have to take into account that the Soviet Union and then Russia have been brainwashed.

Let's take the last century, although it goes much longer. For the last century, Ukrainians have been dehumanized. Russian propaganda is probably 10 times worse than Soviet propaganda because it's now more readily available versus during the Soviet Union. Now you have it through articles, through daily talk shows morning to night, through radio everywhere. It is just when you spend so many decades dehumanizing a country and a group of people, equating them to cockroaches, so they shouldn't exist, then, you will have a military that doesn't see these people as humans and they will come in and they will commit atrocities.

Russia did the same in Syria: carpet bombing cities and committing mass murder across Syria and helping Assad. But partly with Ukraine, it's a little more personal just because this is something that they've put out there for so long.

Moreover, they use these tactics to break the will of the people, which we saw also in Syria. They feel that at a point you are just going to surrender in order to make the bombs stop, in order to stop the killings of your neighbours and your family members.

And also, Russia is so corrupt, that their military isn't properly trained. They give a contract out, let's say, to the Defense Ministry and out of that contract, maybe, one-third will actually go to what it needs to go. The other two-thirds are going to go into people's pockets. So, they're left with barbaric tactics in order to succeed.

They are sending in conscripts, people who have no experience. Now they're offering, I think, 200,000 rubles if — big if with a percentage of return under 20% — if a prisoner from a colony returns back after their fight. How can a prisoner fight on the front lines? What kind of training do they have? So, they just need bodies and these bodies are not trained, and then these bodies in order to succeed also commit very brutal acts.

— What is your assessment of Putin's recent visit to Iran? Why did he need such a visit?

— It's a sign of weakness because Putin has always held up these regimes or worked alongside and had the respect of these regimes. And Putin flew to Iran, basically grovelling for weapons.

The video that went viral on the social media of Erdoğan made Putin wait. The last time Erdoğan made Putin wait was after Turkey downed the Russian aircraft. So, it did happen once before, but there was friction between Russia and Turkey at the time.

Erdoğan makes Putin wait standing inpatient. The whole scene is laughable. The Russian citizens should be embarrassed that their president has to go grovel to Iran in order to try to secure military weapons and potentially help from Hezbollah (they've been trying to pull terrorist organizations into Ukraine to fight on the front lines). This is weakness, not strength.

— Will Lukashenka actually invade Ukraine with the Belarusian army?

— I know that Ukrainians are concerned that Belarusians will be forced to enter the war. They're preparing for a potential push from the Belarusian side again. But I also have seen a lot of signs of dissent within the ranks of the military in Belarus. A lot of the military don't want to send Belarusians, it seems, to die in Ukraine for a war that is not theirs. This is Putin's war. It's bad enough that they're already involved by providing the territory to launch military attacks.

Will they invade? It depends. Don't forget Putin's propping up Lukashenka and putting a lot of pressure on him. It looks like he is trying not to get involved.

But at the same time who knows, how long he can resist because once the Belarusian protest broke out Putin immediately sent up FSB agents and secured the dictator's rule. I'm sure, there are people close to Lukashenka who can take him out at any moment. So, he knows his power relies on Putin.

— To invade or not to invade, is it solely Putin's decision or does Lukashenka have a say in that?

— Ultimately, it will be Putin's decision. I feel, he understands that that can spark a revolution inside of Belarus if you force Belarusians to go fight Ukrainians who absolutely have no problems with the country. I think Putin is not putting maximum pressure just because he is trying to walk that fine line.

It's the same with Russia. Putin wants to order mobilization but he understands that if he orders a full general mobilization inside of Russia, then that potentially can also cause problems for him inside the country. So he's walking that fine line trying to bait prisoners and to grab people out of villages or dirt-poor to throw them onto the front lines.

— People say that if Lukashenka will actually invade Ukraine, it will be suicidal for him because inside the country there is a growing hatred and outside the country, there is the Kalinouski Regiment of Belarusian fighters who potentially could enter Belarus.

— It definitely would be extremely difficult for Lukashenka. Another thing that I do think that they take into consideration is that Belarusians and Ukrainians historically have never had any problems. If anything you see the support that they offer for each other, especially with regard to the Belarusian opposition by the Ukrainian side.

I think another thing that both Putin and Lukashenka do take into consideration is that yes, you can order the military to go in, and if the military doesn't want to be there, they can self-sabotage.

I don't think honestly Lukashenka knows that it's in his best interest to send the Belarusian military in to fight Ukrainians. I know that people within the Belarusian military do not want to go fight Ukrainians.

Why is Ukraine still successful? Because they believe in their forces. Because this is their land. They need to fight for victory in order to maintain their land. Russians are successful in committing genocide and mass massacres, but on the ground there's not that much motivation besides, maybe, stealing a washing machine. If someone invaded Russia you would see the same motivation from them as you see from Ukrainians.

But right now these Russian untrained people are being thrown into the front lines as basically cannon fodder. There's no motivation for them. Some of them understand, "Yes, this is the task". But you see sabotage even within that. You don't see them trying to perform the best that they could even with the little resources or being untrained.

And even though there is that historical hatred for Ukraine, it's still the way Putin painted this as the "special operation" that leaves confusion. If he directly said: "You know what, we are going to expand Russia and conquer all of Ukraine, and then Ukraine will be Russian territory," then, maybe, that would've motivated his military. But here, when there are very unclear instructions, this is the result here.

And it's the same with the foreign policy of the West. They knew Russia was dangerous, but they didn't have a foreign policy naming Russia as an enemy over the past few decades. And because of that confusion, you see the mess that the West got into where they didn't have a proper response to stop Russia in its tracks years ago before we got to this point.

— It seems that this war will go on for months and months. Where is the exit out of this war?

— Ukrainians aren't going to stop because this is their land. Putin is not going to stop and Russia is capable of continuing a very drawn-out war.

The Kremlin's endgame is to drag this out, hoping that the pain of weaponizing energy, weaponizing food, that that would break the will of the allies, and NATO is not going to be as strong as it was.

I think it's just going to continue to a point until people surrounding Putin realize, (even though they agree 100% with his operation because they still have that Soviet mentality) that eventually this is not serving Russia, it's cutting the country off, the economy is going to collapse. And that is going to have a very severe backlash on the Kremlin because even if Russians don't care about Ukrainians and the genocide happening next door they will start caring when things start collapsing within their own country. The economy wasn't good from the very beginning. And as these sanctions kick in, I think, that will cause more pressure inside Russia.

So, for now, I just see carrying on. I do think Putin will try at one point or another to get NATO and the US involved in order to show to the Russian people that he's fighting more than just Ukraine, that the reason they're not succeeding is because of NATO and the US. I do think that they've been laying the groundwork to that point.

There is actually the most laughable story, but this just shows you how insane and desperate they are. They claim that the Ukrainian military is performing so well because a US bio lab in Ukraine (that doesn't exist) injects Ukrainian soldiers with a serum, that's making them into Supermen. When you have to get to the point of explaining with such bizarre reasoning why your military is failing against the Ukrainian military you see where they're headed.

If you like this article, you can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL 97 1160 2202 0000 0002 1671 1123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail [email protected]