Dead End For Russian Troops

The Kremlin does not have any strategy.

The man who initiated a new level of the investigative news genre, Bellingcat lead writer Christo Grozev, talks in an interview with Ukrainian journalist Dmitry Gordon about the current vulnerabilities of the Russian army and the situation in the theatre of war operations.

"I think that there is no understanding of what is happening strategically and what will happen in the next few days even among those who write plans, namely the Russians," says journalist Christo Grozev. "It can be seen for sure that the Russian strategy has almost caught up with what is happening."

"This means that they do not have the possibility to move further. It turns out to be a frozen battlefield, and this is due to many specific factors.

For example, the fact that on both sides of the front, artillery no longer reaches enemy positions. The only thing that can be done is to bombard with aircraft, but this is also dangerous, because it is not clear what kind of air defence Ukrainians have received. And this is a kind of a dead end among the advancing Russian troops.

Yes, theoretically, the Russians can try to noose some cities. But they don't have enough time to do that. So again, the most objective description of what is happening right now is a dead end.

I must say that every such day works in favour of Ukraine. Because more and more weapons are coming. It is more and more NATO rather than Soviet. Thus, this dead end increases the defence capability of Ukraine from day to day working in its favour."

Will Russia be able to create a corridor to Transnistria through southern Ukraine?

"In general, Transnistria is dangerous for both Russia and Ukraine. Because if Ukraine decided now to open a second front from the side of Transnistria, it would have succeeded much easier.

I wouldn't be surprised if this remains not an active plan, but a threat plan that would defocus Russian tactics.

Is it possible for Russia to reach Transnistria? Everything is possible, but is there any guarantee that they will be able to do it? They definitely won't. Precisely because of the fact that every day the shape and strength of the two sides are changing. Each day they delay this plan reduces their chance of fulfilling it in the future."

Do the Russians want to take Odesa and Mykolaiv?

"Certainly, they want to. It will be easier to take Mykolaiv, and much more difficult to take Odesa. They planned to capture Odesa from the sea. They will not succeed either. Why? Because even the war criminal Girkin describes the impossibility of this, since Ukraine is fully prepared to repulse any landing, and they are merely afraid to land.

Will Russia be able to continue the endless bombing of Ukrainian cities?

"First, I don't think it will be endless. This is confirmed not only by me, but also by British intelligence. According to various estimates, the cruise missiles that were at their disposal decreased. According to the most optimistic estimate there is a 40% decrease and about 70-80%, according to the most pessimistic one.

So, of course, they cannot do this endlessly, but even a week of war crimes cannot be allowed.

Therefore, I hope that Ukraine is developing plans not only for the battlefield, but also behind it. There is a question with the people who manage these missiles, there are not so many of them. Wherever they are, certain operational options affect them.

So it cannot be assumed that this will continue in the same progression as it was before. There are vulnerabilities in the management of these dangerous weapons, and I am sure that Ukrainian intelligence is working with it."

Does the Ukrainian army strike at the Belgorod, Kursk and Voronezh regions?

"Ukrainian troops are definitely working in Belgorod and Kursk,” Grozev says. "I can't answer what is happening further. We receive semi-joking explanations on this issue from semi-official Ukrainian persons, saying that this is done by Ukrainian partisans. In fact, I believe more and more that this is true. I can definitely say that there is a split within the Russian special services.

We manage to read various hacked emails, and I see that even people at the highest level inside the GRU describe what is happening in such a way that “let's leave personal relations because the 'special operation' is ongoing”. They also always write in quotation marks, in fact mocking what they are ordered to say.

It also means that they understand that there is no single perception of the war. Therefore, I do not exclude the possibility that there are Russian saboteurs somewhere who are helping Ukraine in more distant places than the border regions.

Will Ukraine launch counter bombardment in retaliation against Russian infrastructure?

"Returning to the topic of new weapons, one must keep in mind that this can be justified and will result in the demotivation of Russian society. The fact is that attempts to demotivate and terrorize Ukrainian society are unsuccessful. They simply commit one war crime after another, for which they will then be punished,” Grozev believes. "There is a cognitive dissonance in Russian society due to the fact that society in Russia does not understand what is happening, but blindly follows the slogans they see on TV.

They cannot understand what kind of Nazism it is in Ukraine, because it has not been fully explained to them. How do the real Nazis who fight in Wagner feel? They think “and then who are we?” They are proud to be neo-Nazis.

Returning to the topic of whether Russia should be bombed in response, I think Ukraine could do this, and it would be effective. But then Ukraine would stop receiving military aid from the West, so for purely pragmatic reasons, this is most likely not worth doing.

“But, on the other hand, we see the effect on society in Europe of the material about more than 600 victims in the Mariupol Drama Theater. And this society is already starting to put pressure on its politicians. So, even if I tell you that you cannot bomb Russian infrastructure in response, public opinion on this matter can change at any moment."