Here's the reason why it will "blow up" not in Uzbekistan, but in Belarus.
Russian political analyst Andrei Suzdaltsev has paid attention to one of Lukashenka's latest statements about Uzbekistan and believes that his "prophecy" may come true, but only in Belarus:
"If it blows up there, where all our interests are concentrated..." - Lukashenka at the CSTO summit in December 2020.
So, it will not "blow up" where there is a stable political situation and legitimate power respected by the people who elected it, where there is a universal and equal system of social protection for all and a high standard of living, protection against bureaucratic bureaucracy and arbitrary power structures, where corruption is minimal, and a modest president (head of state) elected for two terms maximum.
But where people are crushed by the terror of the security services, arbitrary courts and corrupt bureaucracy, where elections are regularly and blatantly rigged, where hundreds and thousands of political prisoners are jailed, where people live in poverty and seek a piece of bread abroad, in a country with a primitive economy, living at the expense of its neighbours for decades under an authoritarian oligarchic regime headed by a voracious "family" living in villas and palaces, which has been sucking all the country's juices for decades, it is bound to "blow up" there sooner or later.
And then all the people who are fed up with these snooty residence owners will be declared extremists and terrorists...
But it won't help. So Lukashenka prophesied correctly two years ago. Nazarbayev has already gone....