In Belarus, everything can change within a couple of weeks.
The interlocutor of Salidarnasts, who has been working as a diplomat at the embassy of one of the European countries for several years, told how he sees the situation in our country and its prospects.
To make the conversation as sincere as possible, the conversation was held on condition of anonymity.
- How can Russia take advantage of the situation in Belarus?
- To answer this question, you need to know the Kremlin's plans.
If suddenly another person with opposite views comes to Lukashenka's place, it is clear that all the agreements signed this year will simply dissolve into thin air. Putin will be told: my dear, you yourself knew with whom you signed the treaty.
I would say that Russia is completely hesitant to use the situation. We see modest steps, although, at the moment, a lot could be achieved literally overnight.
Everybody says: somewhere someone wants to "crush" someone. But it seems to me that the Kremlin should have done something much simpler in order to "crush" someone.
- How's that?
- The economic lever in the hands of the Russian side is quite strong and has become even more powerful. It is enough just to give the local ruler a little nudge - and that's it.
Putin could say: "If you want to continue to exist, then let's make a common currency. You don't want a common currency? Then manage on your own."
It is clear that Lukashenka does not have the resources to exist at his own expense. Even at the expense of law enforcement agencies - they will withstand until a certain time, as long as there is the confidence that the situation will not collapse and the budget will not go down.
- What's next? Will the West continue to impose sanctions? and get everything
- The sanctions will be of a new nature. This will include tougher restrictions on court business and the closure of loopholes like "registering all the assets to a neighbor, to my mother-in-law, and I'll keep working."
Everything is done gradually. And this can be regarded as an invitation to dialogue. But this proposal is not to the ruler. Rather, it is addressed to the environment, the business that can influence something.
As for repression, such clumsy methods could work for a long time in North Korea or Africa. But Belarus is in the center of Europe. With such moods of people, with such a level of education and openness, punitive measures do not solve the problem but only give a reprieve to Lukashenka.
Until the thread breaks.
- How optimistic do you look at the future of Belarus?
- Changes are inevitable. I really hope so.
Everything can change within a couple of months or even a couple of weeks due to some kind of exacerbation, which is not yet on the surface.