Former Head Of National Bank Of Belarus: Lukashenka Will Not Last Till The End Of The Year

There is discontent among the power structures as well.

Not so long ago, the population of Belarus was the main "supplier" of financial resources for the banking system - a third of the total. Now the financial resources of the banks from individuals' deposits have decreased by more than 3 billion rubles.

Charter97.org asked former head of the National Bank of Belarus Stanislau Bahdankevich to assess the current economic situation in the country:

- I assess the situation the way it deserves to be assessed. The population has withdrawn their investments, savings, deposits in banks, because the people are impoverished. There is distrust in the state, in the banking system, in the policy that will take place in the context of Western sanctions and the deterioration of the economic situation in the country. We have a sharp drop in deposits in foreign currency, and in the national currency as well. This is the result of the state of the economy and living standards today.

- How dangerous is this trend for the banking system? What could be the consequences?

- I would not say that there will be any collapse. This is a slow regression, stagnation which is observed in the banking system and the economy in general. The money supply is shrinking. I watched the statistics this year: authorities expected the money supply to grow by 5-10%, but we see that on July 1 it decreased by -2.2%, which means that people and businesses have less money. If we evaluate it by this indicator, it means that we became poorer.

- For 19 months the Belarusians have been buying up foreign currency. Why do you think our people do not trust the Belarusian ruble?

- Because they do not trust the dictatorial regime, functioning in the Republic of Belarus. This is a distrust in the policies and politicians in power. This is the result of everything taken as a whole. So far, we have not had a collapse in the economy, of course, because after the reduction of exports with Europe, our exports with Russia have grown. If you check the statistics, exports to Russia increased by 32-33%.

If Russia were a normal democratic country, then as a democrat I would advocate the friendliest relations, but we have relations with a dictatorial, aggressive and shady Russia. Naturally, the population looks to the West, sees a civilization that is much closer to us. I believe that the European Belarus is closer to us, not the dictatorial Russia.

- Recently, there have been reports that foreign banks refuse to work with Belarusians because of sanctions against the Belarusian state-run banks. How critical is it for the banks and enterprises working with foreign partners?

- Of course, it is critical, there is no question here. There will be fewer resources for development, which will make them more expensive and increase inflation, which now, according to official figures, is 10%. That's the statistics, but in reality it is over 20%. The authorities themselves have already shown a figure of 9.9%. The incomes officially do not grow, there is no pension, and prices go up, which means that the population is getting poorer. However, the people are getting poorer rather slowly, not suddenly, so it does not affect the authorities and enterprises so quickly and does not yet have any effect on taking to the streets.

- Can you tell our readers the best way to secure their deposits?

- It is difficult to give any advice. You have to invest in some business, of course, it also goes through all sorts of repression, but still, you can move with it to Poland, Lithuania, Ukraine, Slovakia, and so on. You can keep money in currencies, the euro or the dollar. After all, they are more stable currencies compared to the Belarusian ruble.

I argued with my colleague for a case of cognac that Lukashenka would fall from his post before the end of the year. Eventually, of course, we only agreed on a bottle, because I might not afford that, but even today I insist that Lukashenka will not last till the end of the year. He has no support neither among the public, nor among the bureaucracy. There is discontent among the power structures.

One should also take into account the additional sanctions imposed by the civilized world. Perhaps, the sanctions will not "make a revolution," but they maintain the spirit of the Belarusian people and the hope for changes and for our return to civilized development. Even with all the disadvantages of sanctions, one should not be afraid and use them in the name of preserving the spirit of the fight against this dictatorial and repressive regime.

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