Get Out, Sasha, Get Out

We are waiting for new hysterics and one really fateful decision.

We are sure that our colleagues from the Minsk Semiboyarshchina could very beautifully encode this story. And we would call it, for example, Operation Drought or Valve, but we will not.

Let's just suggest, based on the information that Josy managed to gather during a short business trip to Moscow, to look at the situation with oil supplies to Belarus from a slightly different angle.

The news that haunts the Belneftekhim concern about the “planned” (according to Halouchanka) oil supplies for refining to Naftan, which “according to the schedule” decreased by more than 10 times in May 2021, the Belarusian-Russian segment of the Internet lives on for over a week now.

The basis is possible secondary US sanctions. And this is where the fun begins.

First. Several Russian companies (the same Rosneft) are "successfully" operating in the regime of Western sanctions. It is difficult to imagine that secondary sanctions would seriously worsen the situation.

Second. The sanctions come into force on June 3, 2021, and it would have been possible to drive raw materials at an increased pace for another month. But no. The pipe is dry already now.

Third. The volume of reductions is also interesting. If we conjure up a little with the figures per year, then we will get more or less the volume necessary to cover the needs of the domestic market, that is, we will have to forget about the export supplies of oil products and oil for a while. We will not remind here what this means for the Belarusian foreign trade and budget.

All these oddities suggest an interesting idea - the Kremlin has found an elegant answer to the endless scam from the old man, and the American sanctions are just a beautiful excuse.

Maybe the ex-President of Moldova Dodon just remembered yesterday the wish for a "confident victory in the presidential elections" (the old man confidently predicted the victories of Poroshenko, Dodon, and Trump)? After all, before that, Dodon had visited the same Moscow and left there with gifts in the form of a vaccine.

In general, we are waiting for new hysterics and one really "fateful" decision.

Get out, Sasha, get out.

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