Kommersant: Moscow Is Not Particularly Scared By Idea Of Lukashenka Being Overthrown

Lukashenka is left face to face with his “election”.

Talking about any influence from Russia on the Belarusian “election” is groundless. This was announced on July 1 at the Russian embassy in Minsk. On the eve of the meeting of the two rulers in Rzhev. What exactly Vladimir Putin and Aliaksandr Lukashenka were talking about is completely incomprehensible. The press-center of the Belarusian ruler extremely sparingly announced these negotiations. There are practically no details from the Russian side either. Kommersant’s political commentator, Dmitry Drize, believes that the relations between the two countries continue to deteriorate.

After completing the opening ceremony of the memorial in Rzhev, Aliaksandr Lukashenka disappeared from the lenses of the cameras, and, almost for the rest of the day, June 30, there was no clarity regarding the meeting of the two presidents. Moreover, it was not completely clear where the Belarusian ruler was. Information appeared only late in the evening. Moreover, it can not be called exhaustive. Putin and Lukashenka discussed all pressing issues of bilateral relations. Translated from diplomatic into simple Russian, this means that there are no results, and there is simply nothing to say. Actually, it was clear from the very beginning. It would be difficult to agree on anything in one day, and even more so on the run, as part of a large event.

But, nevertheless, the press-center’s message could be more colorized. Well, for example, the parties came to understand the need to hold free presidential elections in Belarus, excluding provocations and attempts by external forces to destabilize the situation in the republic. Nothing of the kind was said.

Of course, it makes no sense to guess what really happened there, but the main conclusion is clear - no changes for the better can be expected in the Russian-Belarusian relations. For the worse - possibly.

This includes the extremely nervous and irritated behavior of Aliaksandr Lukashenka recently. By and large, it can be understood. His status as head of state is being questioned. Suppose he says: “We need to lower gas prices and oil, too,” and to him in reply: “Here is the integration plan, sign it and get what you ask for.” Moreover, it cannot be ruled out that the proposal remains valid. This is the price of continued support from the main ally. The bargaining, apparently, can only be done on reducing this very percentage of power that you have to part with.

Actually, there is nothing to be surprised at. Mr. Lukashenka should blame himself exclusively. Belarusian socialism at the expense of a neighbor cannot exist forever. You have to pay for everything sooner or later. The economy will collapse - there will be no other way. The West will not help. And the story of the color revolutions, or the fact that Lukashenka is overthrown and Belarus will go to the West, is also not particularly scary for Moscow, apparently. Moreover, by arresting Russian assets, the Belarusian ruler only worsens the situation.

Lukashenka remains face to face with his “election”. Moreover, the main question for him is not even a victory, but what to do next, at the expense of which resources to maintain his power.