Officials and security officers are already looking for a suitable change of power for Lukashenka.
The CEC headed by Yarmoshyna appointed the decision-making on the registration of presidential candidates on the last day - July 14. Is it likely that alternative applicants, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and Viktar Babaryka, will not be registered. What to do in this case?
Coordinator of the European Belarus civil campaign Dzmitry Bandarenka answered the questions of Charter97.org:
- I think that in case of non-registration of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and Viktar Babaryka, all political processes in Belarus will accelerate significantly. Belarusians will take to the streets en masse, demanding the registration of their candidates. And we know that at least 600 thousand people put their signatures for them, and Lukashenka has a zilch of a rating.
Lukashenka will receive sanctions - both from the West and from Russia. It is already known that Western countries require the Belarusian authorities to register alternative candidates, otherwise there will be sanctions. According to my information, Lukashenka received exactly the same condition from Putin: he was ordered to register the opposition candidates. Moreover, at least one candidate - I'm talking about Viktar Babaryka - is favorably perceived in Russia, because he is a proven person for them. Russia no longer needs an illegitimate president in Belarus.
Lukashenka’s hopes that he will disregard all this and set forth fake candidates this time will not work, because pressure is exerted on him from three sides.
- How do you assess the actions of the headquarters of alternative candidates in this situation? What would you like to say to them based on your experience of political campaigns?
- It is clear that the people from the headquarters are under pressure, including from the Belarusian special services. I would simply wish them firmness, courage and understanding that they represent not only themselves, but also the millions of Belarusian voters who saw in their candidates the hope for a change in the country, and a change in their own situation.
- What other demands should Belarusians set if they have to take to the streets in case of non-registration of their candidates?
- There is only one demand - registration of your candidates. If they are not registered by the authorities, this will mean the beginning of the campaign of civil disobedience.
People will see the reaction of neighboring countries, key political players in the face of the West and the Russian Federation. The situation then will only proceed to the removal of Lukashenka from power. There will be no other options then, because the election itself will become simply meaningless. The moment of truth will come already in this period.
- What if a frightened Lukashenka wants to use force: didn’t he threaten to repeat the events in Andijan?
- This person is clearly not adequate - we understand this.
But, on the other hand, there is no trust from the dictator to the security forces. Over the past year, he has changed the Minister of Internal Affairs, the head and deputies of his administration, the Minister of Defense, the leadership of the General Staff, the head of the Security Council. He changed the government, changed the leadership of the State Control Committee, and finally changed the leadership of military intelligence. They want to sentence the long-term head of Lukashenka’s security service Utsiuryn to 14 years of imprisonment, the former head of the Financial Investigations Department is arrested...
That is, Lukashenka has absolutely no confidence in the security forces. He knows that the siloviki are unhappy with him. This fermentation is already spreading to the Internet, and not only the military, but also the police are participating in it.
Therefore, I can only repeat that if Lukashenka tries to bring the Uzbek experience to our European country, then the fate of Ceausescu will befall him. The military and security forces in this case will not stand on ceremony with him, because they know that they will receive the full support of the people.
Everyone understands that a change of power in Belarus will only be positive for all walks of life, including for security officers and officials. That is why such candidates as Valer Tsapkala and Viktar Babaryka appeared: this is practically a manifestation of the nomenclature conspiracy and the conspiracy of the security forces against Lukashenka.
The situation will improve for all segments of the population, as it was in Central Europe. This is not a zero option, it will be better for everyone. It will be worse only for the Lukashenka family and the last silly security officials, like the riot police. Everyone else will benefit from Lukashenka’s departure.
Seeing the inadequacy of the ruler, officials and security officers are now simply looking for a suitable option, how to make the change of power less painful for all sectors of the society. Internal negotiations are also ongoing in the ruling elite of Belarus. I know that the authorities are already negotiating with foreign countries and with representatives of the opposition for a calm, painless change of power in the country.