Internal Conflict in Lukashenka’s Entourage

The usurper is losing the remaining control of the situation.

Aliaksandr Lukashenka's regime has begun to "leak". It is likely because someone from the power pyramid wants to influence forces around the Belarusian dictator. That is why cracks have appeared on the monolithic of the regime in Belarus.

Gazeta Wyborcza (translated by unian.net) writes about it. It reminds that late Monday night, blogger Nexta published a fragment of a telephone conversation between people whose voices resembled those of Lukashenka's press secretary Natallia Eismont and his adviser Mikalai Latyshonka. The conversation lasted approximately 9 minutes. One could learn from it that the head of the Presidential Administration of Belarus, Ihar Serhienka, has not been at work for a month.

At first, he had a sore throat, but now he has COVID-19. He needs lung ventilation. Being already ill, he took part in a meeting with Lukashenka. At the same time, Serhienka did not even wear a mask, because he was afraid to make the dictator angry.

The spokesperson who sat next to Serhienka during the meeting believes he communicated the coronavirus to her. The conversation shows the atmosphere in the heart of the Belarusian regime is gloomy.

People have been on sick leave or have a rest for months. According to Eismont, at least some officials use sickness or any other excuse to fail to perform their duties.

"I don't want to go to another meeting. I mean, I do, but I know that I can't. I know what boss will say," complained Eismont.

"He will say that you are the source of the leak," laughed Latyshonok.

"It's not funny at all," said Lukashenka's press secretary.

It is not the first time when phone conversations of people from Lukashenka's entourage are published in Belarus. November 19, Nexta blog published the conversation of the head of the Ice Hockey Federation Dmitry Baskov and former world kickboxing champion Dmitry Shakuta. They discussed the death of 31-year-old opposition activist Raman Bandarenka. Secret agents, Baskov and Shakuta were among them, kidnapped him. Bandarenka was beaten at a police department, and then he died.

However, according to Gazeta Wyborcza, it is still unknown who records conversations of people from Lukashenka's entourage. The Belarusian autocrat criticized Poland. However, as the newspaper writes, it is unlikely that the Polish or Western intelligence services were involved. The policy pursued by the West in the matter of Lukashenka's regime is conservative. It responds to Minsk's behaviour. Even so, it is a very slow process. Nothing indicates a strong willingness to act that could escalate the conflict.

In theory, Russia could have recorded it. It actively supports Lukashenka but sets a demand - constitutional reform. Lukashenka is not in a hurry to implement it, and therefore the Kremlin's discontent and impatience are growing. However, it's a small thing for Russia to hit the press secretary of the Belarusian autocrat.

It is worth remembering that at least two former chiefs of the Belarusian KGB and one former head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs now hold high positions in Russia. This fact is enough to imagine how well Moscow is aware of under-the-counter dealings of the Belarusian elites. If the Kremlin had wanted to publish damaging information about them, it could have pulled the carpet from under them. But there were no shakes.

So the most reliable version of the leak is an internal conflict in Minsk. The Belarusian special services are probably trying to change Lukashenka's environment. In addition to the KGB and the Foreign Ministry, several other services can carry out such operations. Which of them has made records? Who did decide to publish them? Nobody knows. However, Eismont says that the blow has reached its goal.

"Because of it, Lukashenka has not called me for three days now. He is afraid," said the press secretary.

If the special services of Belarus are behind the operation, their willingness to use records means a drastic change in Minsk. Although quite much time has passed since the first recordings; the regime has not arrested anybody. Moreover, he has not even released his version of explanations or any suspicions. It means that Lukashenka, who seemed to have controlled every fly in Belarus until recently, is now losing control over his services. If the parties involved in the internal conflict in Minsk start using the origins in their battles even more actively, it is only a matter of time before the power pyramid cracks.