Vytis Jurkonis: Belarusian Authorities Drove Themselves Into Dead-End

The Kremlin is testing several scenarios under Lukashenka.

The Kremlin’s plans for Belarus are becoming more and more alarming. Recently, the premieres of Belarus and Russia signed a document, the implementation of which will actually turn Belarus into a vassal state. At the request of Charter97.org, the situation was commented on by Vytis Jurkonis, lecturer at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science of Vilnius University.

- How would you assess the “program of actions of Belarus and the Russian Federation to implement the provisions of the agreement on the creation of a “union state”, which was signed several days ago by the prime ministers of the Russian Federation and Belarus Dmitry Medvedev and Siarhei Rumas?

- What is the sensation here? This is one of many episodes of the Russian-Belarusian relations. If someone is now worried and wants to fly a black flag, then there were enough such opportunities before, and more than once. I would like to ask such concerned people - where were you then?

- What could be the consequences for Lithuania?

- The question is to which extent everything provided for in this document can be implemented within the stipulated time. I think that there will be many more statements, hesitations, but, of course, the essence of this will not change - the relations between Russia and Belarus are a swamp, where it’s bad to move too much, and it’s also bad to do nothing.

- Will Belarus retain at least nominal independence?

- It depends on what we mean by the term - nominal independence. What is it? Border, “president”, “parliament”, other branches of government? Or maybe your own army?

If I remember well my interview with Pavel Sheremet in 2014, I already said then that Belarus is a de facto occupied country. Energy, economic dependence, military alliance, information space, the dominance of the Russian language - all this is reality. If this is only a matter of the power of Aliaksandr Lukashenka, then occupation is definitely unavoidable.

Independence cannot be maintained if you rely only on one person, on one position.

Professor Vytautas Landsbergis in Lithuania is a symbol of the path to independence, but he was part of Sąjūdis, and hundreds of thousands of Lithuanians supported Sąjūdis. Personally, I would have pinned more hopes on purposeful work and contacts with the public than expected any effects from a dialogue with one person.

- First was Sakartvelo, then Ukraine, now Belarus?

- Any parallels with Sakartvelo or Ukraine seem artificial to me. These countries, or at least part of the population there, fight every day for their independence and every day they pay the price for this struggle. The Belarusian authorities drove themselves to a standstill because they did not want to sacrifice anything. Due to Euro-Atlantic aspirations, the Kremlin’s actions in relation to Tbilisi and Kyiv were much tougher. Why fight with Belarus if the gradual, creeping occupation was quite effective, and there was almost no resistance from the official Minsk?

- The Kremlin often uses disinformation to conceal its true intentions, as it was in the last century, when it turned out that the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact had secret protocols...

- I think that this is just an attempt to assess the situation both in Belarus and neighboring countries. How much attention will be focused on this program, will there be a tantrum or not, and so on. However, I have no doubt that the Kremlin is simultaneously developing other possible actions and corresponding steps. But again, I would urge that you should not be mistaken - all this has been going on for more than a dozen years.

- The odious Russian politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky declared that Moscow needs to annex Ukraine and Belarus. Does this mean that the Kremlin openly declares that it is ready to expand up to the borders of the European Union?

- There is such a theory that Zhirinovsky pre-voices what the Kremlin intends to do in the future. The idea that Belarus is next after Ukraine is far from new and quite popular in the Euro-Atlantic community. The rhetoric (however, Belarus changes it almost every day) of Minsk is not enough, real steps are required that will show that there is not only desire but also actions that actually show that Belarus wants to distance itself from the Kremlin. So far, everything looks like PR or attempts to raise the price (loans, subsidies, etc.).

Returning to the conversation about the Kremlin’s plans: Moscow is operating not only at the borders of the European Union, but also within the EU. The Kremlin is testing many options in different countries: from Belarus to EU countries such as Italy. The main question is why should Belarus be more important to us than EU member states, and also what Belarus itself has done to make the Kremlin’s influence less over the past ten years?

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