The Trap For The Kremlin Has Slammed Shut
10- 9.04.2026, 22:54
- 27,654
Putin lost on all fronts.
Global geopolitics has once again felt a tectonic shift that seemed impossible just a few days ago. While analysts in Washington and Jerusalem argued about the scale of imminent strikes against "Iranian civilization," Donald Trump in his favorite manner made a "180-degree turn." Instead of "fire and fury," the world got the "Islamabad Accord," i.e., an unexpected deal that changes the rules of the game not only in the Middle East, but, it seems, in the corridors of the Kremlin as well.
President Trump, who back in March threatened to wipe Hark Island off the face of the earth, proved once again that foreign policy is something of a business case for him. The US leader went for the deal after receiving Iran's "10-point proposal." Trump pragmatically assessed the risks of a protracted war that could bury his campaign promises of a stable economy. By declaring a "bilateral ceasefire" in Truth, he effectively recognized: bargaining with Tehran is more profitable than going to war. For Moscow, which had been counting on the United States being completely drawn into the "Iranian swamp," this was the first cold shower.
The main sensation was who exactly lit the torch of peace. Not Brussels, not Beijing and certainly not Moscow. Islamabad took on the role of the "new Geneva". Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and General Asim Munir demonstrated filigree diplomacy, becoming the only working channel of communication between Trump and the ayatollahs. Pakistan didn't just "hand over a letter," it worked out the framework of an agreement guaranteeing the opening of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. As the Arab media noted: Pakistan's said success has nullified Russia's claim to be the key mediator in the region.
The economic effect of the truce was immediate. The oil market reacted to the news of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz with a collapse of oil quotations. The price of Brent, which recently stormed the $115 mark, collapsed below $95 per barrel. Forecasts indicate that the return of Iranian oil to the legal field marks the end of the streak of super profits from the deficit of black gold. For Russia's budget, which is designed to meet the conditions of military inflation and high energy prices, such a signal means an inevitable sequestration of expenditures.
Moscow is literally biting its elbows at what it has seen. The Kremlin has lost on all fronts. Russia has experienced a loss of leverage, because Iran, which has begun a dialog with the United States, no longer needs Moscow as its only "lawyer" and intelligence provider. It is telling how Trump openly and cynically rejected Putin's offer of mediation, advising him to "better deal with Ukraine."
Any expectation that the war in the Middle East would divert Western resources away from Kiev has crumbled. On the contrary, Washington is freeing its hands, and the "axis of evil" is cracking in the most important place. Iran is becoming "the beginning of the end of Russian influence in the Global South."
Tehran has chosen the path of survival through a deal, so Russia is left alone with international sanctions and a protracted war against Ukraine. The trap has slammed shut: an ally largely betrayed by Putin, on whom Moscow had previously staked everything, has chosen a pragmatic peace, leaving the Kremlin as an outsider watching someone else's success.
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