ISW: Putin Fears A Revolt And Has Started Purges

Local officials are being made scapegoats.

The Kremlin has begun closed preparations to replace the leaders of three strategically important regions of Russia - Belgorod and Bryansk regions and the Republic of Dagestan. This is reported by experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), citing sources inside the Russian government.

Three informed interlocutors confirmed that the replacement of governors Gladkov, Bogomaz and Melikov is being discussed. It is noted that the Belgorod and Bryansk regions border Ukraine.

The formal reason for Gladkov's possible resignation is said to be his health condition. However, Russian military bloggers promote a different version: rumors began to spread after the governor criticized the shutdown of the Internet and Telegram in the border regions. ISW analysts note that it was after this that Gladkov's position shook sharply.

The ISW experts believe that Moscow is trying to shift responsibility for security failures onto local officials.

"The Kremlin may be making local officials scapegoats for its own failures to adequately respond to the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk Oblast in 2024 and cross-border raids in 2023 and 2024," the report said.

A similar scenario has already been realized in Kursk Oblast, where Governor Alexei Smirnov was replaced. If Gladkov and Bogomaz are also removed, it will mean a complete renewal of leadership in all regions bordering the northern part of Ukraine.

Analysts note that the main purpose of the reshuffle is to minimize the risks of protest voting amid discontent among residents of border areas living under the constant threat of shelling.

"The Kremlin hopes to divert discontent in the border regions away from the Russian president and the ruling party ahead of elections in September 2026," ISW experts conclude.

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