"The Belarusian Army Will Hold Out For Two Weeks."
11- 3.04.2026, 11:06
- 2,772
She's not ready for a big war.
Ukrainian military-political observer of the group "Information Resistance" Alexander Kovalenko in interview to the site Charter97.org assessed the state of the Belarusian army:
- The Belarusian army is about 15 thousand soldiers of more or less combat-ready units. That's what the Belarusian army is.
If we're talking about a big war, even an operation against Ukraine, it's about two weeks of active offensive combat operations.
We see what losses the Russian troops are suffering. And their offensives are small tactical groups, rather slow, creeping, and they lose about a thousand or even more personnel per day. And if we are talking about some kind of invasion, intervention, it is more active actions - in columns, as it is supposed to be. The Belarusian army will have a longer survival rate as part of the Russian troops. If it will be some independent direction, an independent strike, it will be about two weeks.
- Can Putin use the territory of Belarus again to strike Ukraine from the north?
- This option is unrealistic now. Under the current conditions, based on what we see, the events that are taking place on the territory of Belarus, the contingent that is concentrated there, this is a completely unrealistic plan. Just as for an invasion of Poland or the same Lithuania, Russia will still need to gather several tens of thousands of personnel on the territory of Belarus. At least a thousand eighty or a hundred.
Russia can do it, but it will need at least six months. At least half a year it will concentrate all this, bring it all together, place it, prepare the corresponding logistical opportunities on the territory of Belarus itself. But, again, it is impossible to do this without being noticed.
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