"The U.S. Is Sending Lukashenko Signals."

Why did Trump need a Belarusian dictator?

Almost every two to three months, Lukashenko warmly receives a visit from special envoy Donald Trump and his former lawyer John Cole, as well as State Department official Christopher Smith. Trump and Lukashenko exchange compliments, after which the Belarusian authorities release another group of political prisoners and the US announces new sanctions relief. And so in a circle, writes the website of the TV channel Slawa TV.

What's more, Washington is planning a meeting between Lukashenko and Trump - whether at the White House or at Mar-a-Lago. This was confirmed by Trump's special envoy John Cole after his last visit to Belarus in late March. Trump himself is "looking forward" to meeting Lukashenko at the next meeting of the Peace Council - he wrote about it on his Truth Social network.

Lukashenko is a pawn

Trump needs success to sell to MAGA voters ahead of the midterm congressional elections in November, points out Chatham House Fellow and UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Belarus (2018-2024) Anais Marin.

"The release of Belarusian, American and other foreign 'hostages,' as Steve Witkoff calls them, is a story with a positive emotional effect for the evening news," the expert says.

And this story looks more convincing than statements about supposedly stopped wars, Marin continues, especially when Trump confuses countries, "Azerbaijan and Albania or starts new conflicts in parallel - in 14 months under Trump, the U.S. Army fired more missiles than in Biden's four years ." .

Other reasons for "flirting" with Lukashenko, according to the Chatham House scholar, are possible business interests of the Trump family: "For example, Trump Tower in Minsk and perhaps another vote in support of his nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize."

American diplomatic initiative on Belarus is a way to reduce pressure on Putin, according to Atlantic Council research fellow Peter Dickinson.

"For Trump, it's a way to ease sanctions against Russia or create economic opportunities for Russia without taking the political risks of openly engaging with Putin and giving Russia concessions," the expert explains.

Trump's unconditional priority, in Dickinson's estimation, is to improve relations with Russia on both a personal and state level: "He wants to be on friendly terms with Putin" .

But, the expert continues, realizing this politically in the United States is difficult because very few Americans see Russia as a potential ally.

"Polls show conclusively: most Americans realize that a Russian victory in Ukraine would be harmful to American interests. And very few support Russian success or close ties between the U.S. and Russia. Putin and Trump are in a quandary," summarizes Peter Dickinson.

Hence, Trump has chosen this formula for cooperation with Lukashenko.

The Spirit of Anchorage

Some agreements between Trump and Putin may have been reached during their meeting in Anchorage or earlier, during numerous phone conversations, suggests Natalya Radina, editor-in-chief of the opposition Belarusian publication Charter'97.

"It's obvious: if sanctions are lifted from Belarus, it will help Russia as well - a lot of goods will be smuggled through Belarus," says Radina.

But the lifting of sanctions requires concessions. She believes that Putin, who put pressure on Lukashenko, did not do without it - they say, release political prisoners.

Putin himself doesn't care that opponents of the dictator are in prison. This is not a significant concession for him. Therefore, by pressing Lukashenko, they have achieved the gradual release of prisoners of conscience from Belarusian colonies, she notes.

In response, the US lifted sanctions on potash fertilizers, Belavia, a number of Belarusian banks and the Ministry of Finance of Belarus.

Mutual Exchange

As soon as the first sanctions on Belavia were lifted, purchases of spare parts for Boeing planes in Belarus immediately increased, Radina gives an example. Obviously, these spare parts go not only to the few Belarusian planes, but also to Russia, which is in dire need of a maintenance base.

Trump's interest may also be not only political, but also practical

"Belarus is one of the world's producers of potash fertilizers. And now the U.S. is in dire need of them after deteriorating relations with Canada, which had been the largest supplier. During his visit to Minsk, Trump's special envoy John Cole confirmed that potash supplies to the US were discussed," Radina says.

Russia can use Belarus as a conduit for exports and imports, as well as access to international finance through Belarusian institutions, Peter Dickinson adds. The range of such possibilities is very wide and Russia's influence on Belarus is significant, especially after 2020.

"So there is no chance that Lukashenko will turn his back on Russia and start cooperating with the West," Dickinson believes.

Lukashenko between the Kremlin and Washington

Lukashenko is acting pragmatically, just like Trump. He began reaching out to Trump's team as early as 2024, declaring a willingness to exchange political prisoners, notes Anais Marin.

"He dismissed some of it simply as a goodwill gesture to test the reaction. Then he waited for a response from the US - and he did. Now they are even discussing the possibility of reopening the embassy, which has been closed since 2008".

But there's no question of a strategic turn away from Russia - Belarus' dependence on Moscow is too deep.

This is more of a tactical move. Lukashenko has the goods - political prisoners, but there are few buyers. The Europeans don't buy, the Chinese don't buy either. If the Americans are ready to join this exchange, Lukashenko is ready to play," explains Marin.

At the same time, there is a realistic element in the Trump administration's strategy towards Belarus - to give Lukashenko "oxygen," i.e. space for maneuvering.

"This is a long-standing principle of the US policy - to prevent Belarus from being completely absorbed by Russia. In the long term, this goal probably remains relevant," says Marin.

At the same time, according to her, Washington also sends signals to Lukashenko.

"In particular, a warning about the consequences of a possible entry of Belarus into war or the use of tactical nuclear weapons from its territory: the response will be conventional, but large-scale and destructive for critical infrastructure. This is the 'red line' that even Si Jinping advised not to cross," she emphasizes.

Belarus and the war against Ukraine

Lukashenko fears Putin much more than Trump, Natalia Radina notes. Therefore, no changes in Minsk's attitude to the war against Ukraine should not be expected.

"Even if we imagine that Trump will ask him for something and Putin will be against it - obviously, Lukashenko will do what the Kremlin needs," she says.

Minsk's position remains relatively stable. At the same time, there are demonstrative moves for domestic audiences and "hybrid" pressure - to keep Ukraine in suspense and force it to keep troops in the Belarusian direction, Anais Marin notes.

She believes that the normalization of US-Belarus relations could, over time, strengthen Lukashenko's position as a participant in possible peace talks or discussions on a new European security architecture - something he has long sought.

Could this warming reduce repressive pressure inside Belarus? Natalia Radina doesn't believe so.

"Even if you look at the release of political prisoners, most of them are simply kicked out of the country," she says.

The remaining ones are under strict control of the security services. It is impossible to work in independent media or human rights organizations.

"Lukashenko is panic-stricken about losing power. The events of 2020 were a trauma for him - he realized that a significant part of society does not support him. Since then he doesn't trust people," says Radina.

No systemic changes, according to her conviction, should be expected as long as Lukashenko is in power. Another question is how long he can hold it.

"The economic situation in Belarus remains difficult because of the sanctions. And although the U.S. restrictions are partially lifted, the key pressure continues to be exerted by European sanctions," summarizes the expert.

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