"Lukashenko Has Spoken Out."

A Ukrainian military expert believes that the Belarusian dictator gave away the Kremlin's plans.

Lukashenko announced that the Belarusian army should prepare for war.

Who is the dictator actually going to fight?

About this, the site Charter97.org talked to the Ukrainian military and political observer of the group "Information Resistance" Alexander Kovalenko:

-I think that Lukashenko is not preparing to go to war with anyone. Until the last moment, no matter what it costs him, he will slip away and abstract from direct participation in this or that conflict.

For example, this was the case in 2022, when a full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops from the territory of Belarus began, and after the command of the Russian Armed Forces realized that a quick capture of the territory of Ukraine would not be possible, they lacked the resources for that, proposals to Lukashenko to join the war at that time came regularly. But he did not go for it, even though at that time the situation did not look as bad as it did much later. Lukashenko left the territory of Belarus to Russia, saying that you can use it for your own purposes; he helped Russia by transferring equipment, ammunition from warehouses and storage centers, but there was no direct participation of Belarusian troops, no direct intervention.

Lukashenko understands perfectly well that he doesn't have such a strong army that he can throw it around like this, and he can't afford it. He needs an army to protect him from his own people. His main task today is to preserve his regime.

If we talk about something more, Lukashenko is clearly hinting at something that is no secret to anyone: the Russians have not given up their plans for war with NATO countries, for invasion of one of the European countries.

Today the Baltic States, especially Estonia, are under threat. This is a very real threat, and Lukashenko, I think, is well aware of Russia's plans for any prospect, that's why he talks about it. But it is unlikely that the Belarusian dictator will allow Russia, for example, to use the Armed Forces of Belarus. The territory of Belarus - yes, most likely, it is possible.

- What does the Belarusian army represent today, in your opinion? Does Lukashenko's regime have real forces for direct entry into the war?

- The Belarusian army is about 15 thousand soldiers of more or less combat-ready units. That is what the Belarusian army is.

If we are talking about a big war, even an operation against Ukraine, it is about two weeks of active offensive combat operations.

We see what losses the Russian troops are suffering. And their offensives are small tactical groups, rather slow, creeping, and they lose about a thousand or even more personnel per day. And if we are talking about some kind of invasion, intervention, it is more active actions - in columns, as it is supposed to be. The Belarusian army will have a longer survival rate as part of the Russian troops. If it is some independent direction, an independent strike, it will be about two weeks.

- Can Putin again use the territory of Belarus to strike Ukraine from the north?

- This option is unrealistic now. Under the current conditions, based on what we see, the events that are taking place on the territory of Belarus, the contingent that is concentrated there, this is a completely unrealistic plan. Just as for an invasion of Poland or the same Lithuania, Russia will still need to gather several tens of thousands of troops on the territory of Belarus. At least a thousand eighty or a hundred.

Russia can do it, but it will need at least six months. At least half a year it will concentrate all this, bring it all together, place it, prepare the corresponding logistical opportunities on the territory of Belarus itself. But, again, it is impossible to do this without being noticed.

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