Ukraine Has Thwarted Putin's Spring Plan

The spring offensive of the occupiers ended with colossal losses.

Russia's spring-summer offensive has virtually collapsed in the first month. According to estimates by Ukrainian military expert Alexandr Kovalenko, in March the Russian army suffered almost 32,000 casualties with very little advance, and the ratio of losses to occupied territories was the worst for the entire time of a full-scale war.

In March, Russian troops managed to occupy about 155 km², which is significantly inferior to last year's figures. For comparison, the rates averaged 130-150 km² per week in the summer of 2025. Now they have reduced almost four times.

At the same time, the level of losses has reached critical values - more than 200 people per square kilometer. Taking into account Ukrainian counterattacks, the final result was even lower: less than 75 km² with a record ratio of about 426 casualties per 1 km².

The beginning of the offensive campaign, which was seen as an attempt to change the situation on the front, led to the opposite effect. Casualties are rising faster than the controlled territory is expanding, indicating serious problems in conducting large-scale offensive operations.

Since the end of January, Ukrainian forces have liberated about 480 km², of which about 80 km² in March. In February and March, the Russian army occupied a total of about 293 km², which is significantly less than the area of territories recovered by Ukraine.

High losses and limited opportunities for replenishment of personnel increase the burden on the Russian army and create risks of lack of resources to continue the offensive.

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