The Price Of Gasoline In Belarus May Rise Even Higher

There are a number of reasons for this.

March 27, Belneftekhim announced the increase in fuel prices in two stages, a total of 7 kopecks per liter. Economist Anastasia Luzgina told "Belsat" that it seems that this is not the end, and explained why prices may rise further this year.

The war in Iran provoked the rise in the price of oil on the world market, followed by the rise in motor fuel. But in Belarus, the cost of gasoline did not rise immediately. In early March, economist of the BEROC Research Center Anastasia Luzgina predicted that fuel would still rise in price in Belarus, and this forecast came true: March 27, Belneftekhim announced a "gradual adjustment of retail prices of motor fuel.

Such delicate wording, apparently, should embellish the harsh reality: March 28, a liter of fuel went up by 4 kopecks, while April 4, the price will rise by another 3 kopecks. As a result, the prices will add 3% and will be as follows:

AI-92 - 2.57 rubles;

AI-95 - 2.67 rubles;

AI-98 - 2.89 rubles;

Diesel fuel - 2.67 rubles.

Now Luzgina says that it seems that this is not the last fuel price increase. She recalled that last year gasoline and diesel fuel went up by 16 kopecks (or 6.5%), although everything was stable with oil:

"It is likely that the process will not stop here, there will be another increase. It should be taken into account that in 2024 and 2025 gasoline prices were also rising, while, for example, last year was stable in terms of oil prices, there were no serious jumps."

According to the expert, fuel would have to rise in price in Belarus this year without the oil crisis:

"Not only the price of oil itself plays a role here, but also maintenance, logistics and wages are growing. Costs are increasing - and the price may change a little."

And to such "usual" reasons the conflict in the Middle East is added, which pushes fuel prices up more:

"Most likely, the current plus 3% is not the limit of growth. It is likely that we will still see such a gradual increase during April-May, maybe by 2-3 kopecks."

But much will depend on the duration of the war in Iran and the obstacles in the Strait of Hormuz for tankers:

"If it will be within not a month, but two or three or four, the likelihood of further gasoline price hikes will remain and increase, because Russian oil is also becoming more expensive, it is becoming more expensive for refineries."

The tricky thing about fuel price hikes is that they push up overall inflation. Gasoline or diesel is needed in almost every activity: for example, to bring goods to the store, or bricks to a construction site, or some parts to a factory, or the same fuel at a gas station, not to mention buses, shuttles and cabs. As a result, the companies' expenses are growing, Luzgina stated:

"Of course, any increase in gasoline prices will be transferred to the cost of production or services, although within the limits of the existing price regulation. The current rise in fuel prices is not too big yet, but gradually it will certainly be transferred to consumer prices.

So far, inflation in Belarus has not jumped beyond the boundaries outlined by the authorities: in February, prices rose by 5.6% year-on-year, while the plan is not more than 7% this year.

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