A "black Swan" Has Flown To Lukashenko

The dictator is in for some serious upheaval.

Recently, Belstat shared statistics, which hardly pleased the Belarusian authorities: the number of loss-making enterprises has increased in our country. If at the beginning of last year it was a quarter (25.1%) of the total number, then in January 2026 - almost a third (31.9%).

While in Minsk the share of unprofitable companies is even higher, and in financial losses the worst situation is in Homiel region.

What explains such alternative successes and "negative growth" of the Belarusian industry, "Filin" asked economic observer Andrei Mahovsky.

- All last year the situation deteriorated," the expert reminds, "first of all, with Belarusian exports. Formally, we sold more - in terms of money, but the physical volume of products - less.

"It was worse only in the 90's"

- Belarus is losing the most important Russian market, revenues are falling. Reports showed that the largest Belarusian enterprises, the flagships, failed to fulfill their export plans. And "failed" is a very mild way of putting it, in fact, they failed.

BMZ, Tractor Plant, Gomselmash, BelAZ... They had to sell their products at lower prices, started to reduce production in the second half of the year, but they did not reduce it enough and still produce more than they can sell. Accordingly, profits are falling and losses are growing. In the end, there are no profits at all, only losses.

- And warehouses are not endless.

- By the way, yes: we have seen that the industry is working worse and worse, including warehouses. The workload is already 90% of monthly production. This is more than it was in the worst years of the Belarusian economy. It is more than in the worst years of the Belarusian economy. It turns out that the economy did not work for warehouses then, but now it does.

Before this record was in 2011, during the crisis. But today we have surpassed it too. Frankly speaking, I just can't remember the last time when warehouses were of such a size - worse, perhaps, only in the 90s.

"The black swan has arrived"

Sales of Belarusian enterprises are falling, while losses are growing. At the same time, salaries of employees need to be paid, loans taken for the expansion and modernization of production need to be repaid. How? And what can the authorities do in such conditions - increase the deferral of debt payments, give more money (the budget is not rubber)?

- We understand that nobody will allow Tractor Plant, MAZ or Gomselmash to close down. Likewise, the authorities will not allow them to lay off workers, not to pay wages, - says Andrei Makhovsky. - What can they do? For example, recently the head of the National Bank, Roman Holovchenko, said that the authorities had started to spend gold and foreign currency reserves on important investment projects.

The point of reserves is precisely that you don't spend them. As soon as you start spending them, investing them even in the most profitable investment project, they are no longer reserves.

And if you have to turn to reserves, it means that there is really not enough money. It will be necessary to print out some coffers to support these enterprises.

The expert notes that the budget of Belarus in 2025 was executed with a deficit of Br2 billion. The Ministry of Finance, however, boasted that this deficit is half of the planned one, but the fact is that the Belarusian budget is always formed with a reserve, so that it could later report on the overfulfillment of indicators.

The budget has been in surplus so far in recent years, but now it has gone into a minus. It means that already last year the state had to spend money to support unprofitable enterprises, including to prevent them from closing down: soft loans, budget subsidies, deferral of debts and other usual measures for the authorities.

- The products of Belarusian enterprises will not be sold better, and the Russian economy will be worse off. What awaits us if all this continues?

- There is a wonderful study by Dmitry Kruk on this subject, what will happen to the Belarusian economy: stagnation. And until recently, one could say that nothing catastrophic would happen: there would be minimal GDP growth, or no growth, or even a decline. In general, we could almost confidently say that slow rot awaits us.

But then came the "black swan" in the form of the Iranian war. So now there is a non-zero risk that this will not be stagnation, but a more serious crisis. The probability is still very low, because the war has been going on for a short time, and if it does not drag on, it will not affect the Belarusian economy much. But, I repeat, there is such a risk, and the longer the war in Iran lasts, the higher it is.

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