A Headache For Lukashenko

The war in the Middle East is creating a new international reality.

The conflict in the Middle East has changed many geopolitical arrangements. It diverts attention from the Russian-Ukrainian war. Against the background of world cataclysms, the international weight of the Belarusian issue is falling. The US interest in Belarus may decrease, and the "grand bargain" will not take place.

The fork point for world politics

The war in the Middle East creates a new international reality. It has changed many geopolitical arrangements and has become the trigger of the global energy crisis. The system of international relations is at a fork in the road. All these processes affect Belarus in one way or another. Will it be able to fit into the new trends and adapt to the changes?

The Middle East conflict and the Russian-Ukrainian war raised the question of what is a factor of state strength in a new way. It turned out that a developed economy and high technological level can be inferior to such factors as the political will of the ruling elite and the ability to wage a war of attrition. And in this respect, dictatorships have a certain advantage over democracies.

What the war in the Middle East changes for Russia and Ukraine

It is worth stating a banal conclusion that has been repeatedly noted: the war in the Middle East distracts attention from the Russian-Ukrainian war. Against the background of events around Iran, Russia's aggression in the eyes of the world community no longer looks so brutal, terrible, a gross violation of the order based on rules. Now other countries are doing something similar.

In this regard, in addition to the actions of the United States and Israel, it is important to pay attention to Iran's behavior. It started launching missiles in all directions. Even Turkey, Cyprus, and Azerbaijan have come under attack. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz affects many countries that have nothing to do with this war, even Iran's allies (for example, China).

This has its own consequences. The international image of Russia as an aggressor (and Belarus as a co-aggressor) and international pariah is eroding. World oil and gas prices are rising, the demand for Russian energy resources is increasing, and as a result, Russia has additional revenues for warfare. Putin has less incentive to end it.

Ukraine can now count on less military support. The interest of the USA to the topic of settlement and termination of the Russian-Ukrainian war is decreasing.

"Belarusian question" on the world scales

With the background of world cataclysms, the international weight of the "Belarusian question" is decreasing. The world does not care about political prisoners and political repressions in Belarus. And even migration attacks on the border, smuggled cylinders do not cause such a stir as before. These topics are of concern only to Belarus' neighbors. Therefore, all the discussions in the circles of the Belarusian civil society concerning the optimal tactics of releasing political prisoners hang in uncertainty.

But, on the other hand, the price of this "good" on the international market is decreasing for Lukashenko's regime. The moment when it could have been profitably monetized seems to have been missed. The game with political prisoners may not have the effect the authorities are hoping for.

Belarus, the United States and the Peace Council

The interest of Donald Trump in Belarus may decrease. He now has many other, more important problems.

The release of Belarusian political prisoners was associated with Trump's hopes to receive the Nobel Peace Prize. Now the chances of this have significantly decreased. And the political weight of this issue for the American administration is decreasing. Earlier, these releases could be presented as a demonstration of Trump's success. However, now, against the background of rising gasoline prices in the United States, the topic of Belarusian political prisoners is unlikely to excite the Americans much.

Lukashenko, grasping the Peace Council, is trying to pull the whole chain and solve the problems in relations with the West with the help of the United States. But the game with this "toy" may bore Trump. Where is the place of the Peace Council here against the background of a big war in the Middle East? Therefore, Lukashenko's calculations to use this institution as a lever that will turn Belarus' relations with the United States upside down may not come true. And the "big deal" may not take place.

Where to look for a "safe harbor"

As for the domestic political situation in Belarus, the mythologem "as long as there is no war" and the narratives about "a peaceful sky above our heads" may get a new breath. It is not by chance that Lukashenko emphasizes this, presenting Belarus as an island of peace and tranquility against the background of the spreading world turmoil. Besides, the improvement of the situation in the Russian economy against the background of rising energy prices will have a positive impact on the Belarusian economy as well.

At the same time, a new problem arises for Lukashenko. In recent years, he considered the Emirates and Oman as a "safe harbor", where one could take refuge, rest, save financial resources and then, perhaps, reinvest them in Belarus as foreign capital. And now it turns out that these countries have become frontline states, drawn into the war against their will. This creates an additional headache.

Valery Karbalevich, "Radio Svaboda".

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