Dubai Sheikhs Are In Shock

Twist, twist, twist Trump - and they got it.

The markets have come to believe that Trump is already preparing the ground for a third TACO. Which the same markets are forcing him to do again. The only thing that can still influence Trump's behavior. So Trump is talking about 2-3 weeks, oil is flying below $100 a barrel, and US stock markets are having their best day of the year, adding under 3 percent.

The paradox is that if the markets believe too much, the pressure on Trump from oil prices, the cost of US debt, and stock market dynamics diminishes, then Trump's 2-3 weeks will turn into Arrestovich's 2-3 weeks.

And besides, it's happened before. Trump has said that before. And then he changed his mind.

And, of course, the end of the bombing of Iran by Israel and the US does not guarantee the end of the energy crisis. Iran will not automatically unblock the strait. Rather, though, it brings us closer to a further decline in the cost of oil. Which can't help but make us happy, because high oil prices make Putin too happy. And inspire Russians to make new ultimatums.

What makes us happy is that Putin cannot fully utilize the time of high oil prices. Thanks to the good Ukrainian drones who were able to actually collapse the Russians' physical exports. The incredible success of those who launched them. And produced.

Collapse, at least temporarily. And if Trump does finally back down, the benefits to the Russians from his war will be very limited. And we will once again focus on Putin's huge budget hole that no amount of foreign loans will cover, Russia's falling GDP, and other good news from the Russian economy. But for that Trump has to merge as soon as possible.

Although, besides the budget, there is the issue of depleted stocks of interceptor missiles. And that is a real challenge for Ukraine next winter. Therefore, the issue of energy truce remains relevant even against the background of burning Russian ports. Because strikes on our energy facilities are not only a pressure on the morale of the home front, but also a significant blow to the economy. This year, if the strikes on the energy sector continue, it will cost us 2.5% of GDP.

And the Dubai sheikhs are the most shocked. They spun Trump around - and they got it. Without regime change in Iran, Dubai will now always be seen as a "could do it again" territory. A bad story for a territory that attracted money from all over the world, particularly the image of absolute security. Though these are, of course, their problems. Which concern us only with the realization that these guys will need a lot of Ukrainian drones. Pro stock.

Sergey Fursa, Facebook

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