ISW: Russian Federation's "offensive" Has Stalled Sharply Since The Beginning Of The Year

The analysts cited some interesting figures

The advance of Russian troops on the frontline has slowed sharply since the beginning of the year, and Ukrainian forces continue to seize the initiative in various directions. This was written by analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), analyzing the "successes" of the Russians on the battlefield.

So, according to ISW, Russian troops captured 1,929.69 square kilometers of territory between October 1, 2025 and March 31, 2026, advancing an average of 10.66 square kilometers per day. By comparison, between October 1, 2024 and March 31, 2025, Russian troops captured 2,716.57 square kilometers of territory, advancing at an average of 14.9 square kilometers per day.

In the first three months of the year, the Russians advanced twice as slowly as in the previous year.

"Russian forces advanced at an average rate of 5.5 square kilometers per day in the first three months of 2026, compared to an average rate of 11.06 square kilometers per day in the first three months of 2025," ISW noted.

What are the reasons for the slow Russian offensive

The analysts note that Ukrainian counterattacks and medium-range strikes are likely hampering Russia's efforts to advance.

"Ukrainian forces in the winter and spring of 2026 made the most significant gains on the battlefield since Ukraine's invasion of Kursk Oblast in August 2024 and liberated the most territory in Ukraine itself since the 2023 counteroffensive. Ukrainian forces have reportedly liberated more than 400 square kilometers in the Alexandrov and Gulyaipol directions during two separate offensives from late January 2026 to mid-March," the analysts point out.

At the same time, Ukrainian counterattacks in southern Ukraine have had a cascading effect on other parts of the front, forcing Russian forces to choose between defending against Ukrainian counteroffensives and allocating manpower and material resources for offensive operations elsewhere along the front line:

"The realities of combat operations as of late March 2026 continue to show that significant Russian successes on the battlefield, let alone outright victory, are neither imminent nor inevitable. Current battlefield dynamics do not suggest that Russia will quickly seize land in the Kupyansk area or southern Ukraine."

Analysts note that Russian forces continue to suffer personnel losses and are increasingly relying on poorly trained and under-equipped infantry to achieve successes. The Russians have also shifted to infiltration tactics to achieve gains across the front in 2025, but have recently had difficulty establishing themselves in new positions, which has partially allowed Ukraine to launch counteroffensives in southern Ukraine in February 2026.

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