Electronics And Auto Parts In Belarus May Go Up By 30%
11- 7.03.2026, 20:46
- 5,386
The reason is that the Strait of Hormuz is paralyzed.
The rise in prices for consumers in Belarus may amount to 20-30% in a few months - such forecasts were made by experts, writes "Belarusians and the market". The reason is the paralyzed Strait of Hormuz, one of the key nodes of world trade. "If you think that the war in the Middle East is somewhere far away and doesn't concern us, then look at the price of a TV set, video card or brake pads in a couple of months," analysts say.
It will come as a surprise to some that half of the electronics and car parts that get to Belarus went exactly through the Strait of Hormuz. Now ships bypass Africa, which raises insurance and breaks down logistics.
Ormuz is the narrow neck of world trade
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow sea artery between Iran and Oman. About 20 percent of the world's oil trade and much of its gas passes through it. Any conflict there instantly hits global logistics, Reuters writes.
In early March 2026, the situation escalated sharply:
warfare between the United States, Israel and Iran;
attacks on ships in the Persian Gulf;
soaring freight costs.
Supertanker charter rates on routes from the Middle East to Asia have risen to more than $420,000 a day, a historic high.
Large carriers have begun to curtail routes through the Persian Gulf and send ships bypassing Africa via the Cape of Good Hope. This increases the route by thousands of kilometers and adds 10-15 days to the delivery.
The main question is: what does Belarus have to do with it?
To understand the route, how electronics and spare parts get to Belarus. After the 2022 sanctions, the supply of Western machinery and car parts to Russia and Belarus changed dramatically. Official distributors left, and the market began to live off parallel imports.
The idea is simple: goods are bought in a third country and then resold to Russia or Belarus without the manufacturer's consent. Gradually a whole logistics network has developed.
The main hubs of parallel imports
OAE (Dubai, Abu Dhabi): the largest transit center. Electronics, cars and equipment go through free economic zones.
Turkey: transshipment point for European goods - from household appliances to car parts.
Kazakhstan, Armenia, Georgia: intermediate countries for the supply of European and Asian goods.
China and Southeast Asia: the main suppliers of parts and electronics, especially car components.
Factually the scheme looks like this:
EU / China → Turkey or UAE → Russia → Belarus
EU → Kazakhstan / Armenia → Russia → Belarus
Why exactly Hormuz hits electronics
At first glance it may seem: "so what, it's an oil strait". But through the Persian Gulf passes a huge flow of container transportation between Asia, the Middle East and Europe.
It is there that the largest logistics points are located: Dubai (Jebel Ali port), Oman (Salalah port), Qatar, Saudi Arabia. A huge flow of re-exports passes through them, and it is re-exports that are the basis of parallel imports. If this node breaks down, the whole scheme breaks down.
What will happen to prices
Market experts note several factors of price growth:
Maritime transportation is becoming more expensive. (Freight has multiplied due to the risk of attacks and insurance).
The cost of insurance is rising. (Military risks have increased insurance premiums for ships).
Lengthening logistics. (The route around Africa is much longer).
The weakening of the Russian ruble. (And the Belarusian economy is highly dependent on the Russian market).
Conclusion: many goods come to Belarus through Russian supplies. The ruble devaluation automatically increases the price of imports. Already now logisticians and importers predict a 20-30% price increase for machinery and automotive components.
Which goods will rise in price first?
The most sensitive categories:
Electronics: TVs, laptops, video cards, smartphones, home appliances
Auto parts: body parts, car electronics, sensors and control units, glass, suspension elements
For example, today a significant part of spare parts comes from China and Turkey, and plastic parts and body parts - from Asia and Europe. If logistics becomes more expensive, the price of parts rises almost automatically.
Belarus is a silent passenger of other people's sanctions
The most ironic thing in this story is that Belarus is not involved in the Middle East conflicts at all. But the country's economy is embedded in a chain: China → Middle East → Russia → Belarus. And when one node breaks down, the effect spreads to the whole market.
A strange picture emerges: a missile flies over the Persian Gulf, and a couple of months later, an ABS unit for Volkswagen or a new TV set becomes more expensive in Minsk.
If the conflict drags on, the most unpleasant scenario - long-term instability - will come. Then three things will happen:
Logistics will finally rearrange for long routes.
Prices for oil and transportation will remain high.
Parallel imports will become even more expensive.
And it means that machinery and auto parts in Belarus may become more expensive not temporarily, but for a long time. "Therefore, for those who are still not interested in politics, it's worth at least to understand one thing - when you buy a new TV set or a set of brake disks, you pay not only for the goods, you pay for geopolitics."
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