Lithuanian Intelligence: Lukashenko Will Go For Confrontation

Russia may attack the Baltic states in the coming years.

Moscow may be ready for a limited military conflict in the Baltic region within one or two years after the conclusion of a peace agreement with Ukraine. This, as LRT writes, is stated in the annual report on national security threats prepared by the Lithuanian State Security Department and the Defense Ministry.

The report says that Russia has demonstrated a remarkable ability to overcome economic difficulties, heavy troop losses and international sanctions. And even as the war in Ukraine continues, it has managed to build up its military capabilities along NATO's eastern border.

"If Russia continues military action against Ukraine with the same intensity as in the past four years, it will require significant human and financial resources, so Russia's ability to pose a military threat to other states will remain limited," the experts said.

The worst-case scenario, they said, is possible after a peace agreement is reached and most international sanctions are lifted from Russia. In this case, Moscow may be ready for a limited military conflict in the Baltic region within one or two years and a large-scale conflict with NATO within six to ten years.

"In the long term, Russia is likely to create an army that will not only be 30-50 percent larger than before the war, but also relatively modern," the report said.

"Relations will remain confrontational."

As for Belarus, Lithuanian intelligence services note that although Lukashenko has recently sought to ease tensions with Western countries, he is unlikely to abandon his authoritarian policies. And his relations with Lithuania and other neighboring countries will remain confrontational.

Minsk uses political prisoners as a tool of pressure, while any improvement of economic ties with the West will not replace the growing dependence of Belarus on Russia, the authors of the report state.

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