Andrei Sannikov: Only One End Awaits Lukashenko

The dictator crossed the red line a long time ago.

How are US and Israeli strikes against the ayatollahs' regime affecting Lukashenko? Could a major war break out in the Middle East? What do Iranian oppositionists say about the operation against the authorities in Tehran?

About this and more, Charter97.org spoke with the leader of the civil campaign "European Belarus" Andrei Sannikov.

- How do you generally assess the operation of the U.S. and Israel and the reaction to it in the world?

- Apparently, it is worth remembering what was the reason for the use of force.

The rise to power in Iran of the Ayatollah regime occurred on the very eve of a major world upheaval, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the liberation of the countries of Eastern Europe from their occupation regimes. After that, the West believed in the "end of history" and prioritized its business relations with the newly independent states. These relations have not always developed within the framework of the law. Corruption is tempting, so many people preferred to turn a blind eye to human rights violations in our region and in the world at large. The values of the democratic world were actively eroded with the help of the democratic world itself.

"The club of dictators" was expanding, violation of international law became commonplace. Dictators actively engaged in the manufacture of weapons of mass destruction, and in the process assassinated political opponents and shot peaceful protests.

The West missed an opportunity to assist the peaceful transition of dictatorial countries to democratic forms of government and now faces the need to use force to eliminate the real threat of nuclear, chemical, biological weapons.

This is the purpose of the US and Israeli operation against the Ayatollahs. This operation is even belated, it could have started as soon as the massacre of protesters in Iran against the Ayatollahs became known. The reaction in the world to it was fairly predictable: restrained support from Western countries and frightened hissing from dictatorships.

- How likely is it that the conflict will escalate into a major war?"

- The likelihood is not insignificant, this is the Middle East. Even without military action, there is a huge number of open and hidden conflicts intertwined there. There are interests there not only of the US and Israel, but also of Russia and China. So the situation remains very explosive on a global scale.

But today we can already say that Russia has received a tangible blow to its ego even here, because its air defense systems did not work, and Putin is once again "celebrating cowardice" after the deaths of his close friends in Iran. So they are unlikely to get involved in this conflict.

The best option would be, of course, to help the Iranians overthrow the dictatorship and implement democratic reforms, which would establish stability in the region, but it is too early to talk about that.

- You are the ombudsman for the World Freedom Congress, which includes Iranian dissidents. What do they say about the situation in Iran after the elimination of Khamenei?"

- Iranians are certainly not just happy, but happy. One prominent Iranian opposition activist, Masih Alinejad, could not contain her emotions and ran out into the streets of New York City, where she lives, shouting "Khamenei is dead!". Random passersby rushed to her for hugs. She is understandable; the ayatollahs have sent assassins to her three times.

Our Iranian colleagues in Congress share her feelings. We are on the phone every day, monitoring the situation, issuing statements and reaching out to political and community leaders around the world, calling their attention to the need for solidarity with the people of Iran. By the way, Iranians were very impressed with the joint protests that "European Belarus" held in Vilnius.

- What does the elimination of Khamenei mean for Lukashenko and other dictators?

- Khamenei, and before that Maduro, are signals to all usurpers, a strong warning that crimes are inevitably followed by punishment, and that technically the U.S. is now able to track dictators anywhere, no matter how deep into the ground they burrow.

Lukashenko, like Maduro, like the Ayatollahs, has long since crossed the red line with political assassinations, and since 2020 his regime has been a serial killer and organizer of horrific torture camps for political opponents. So he is writing his own fate and so far only one end awaits him in those writings.

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