Petro Oleshchuk: This Is One Of The Best Operations Of Ukrainian Special Services
8- 31.03.2026, 16:25
- 23,850
Russia may face another problem because of the AFU strikes on the "oil industry".
Ukraine has been hitting the port in Ust-Luga, as well as other Russian infrastructure on the Baltic for a week now. What results have been achieved so far? About it the site Charter97.org talked to the Ukrainian political scientist, professor of the Kiev National Taras Shevchenko University Peter Oleshchuk.
- We can confidently say that this is one of the most successful operations, which was carried out by the Ukrainian special services, first of all the Security Service of Ukraine.
The center "Alpha", which deals with special operations of the SBU, has been striking the infrastructure of two ports for a long time, literally every night. These ports play a key role in Russian exports of oil, oil products, gas condensate. In other words, all the things for which Russia gets its main revenues. Ukraine has previously struck Black Sea ports, but the Baltic ports are more strategic in this regard. Besides, they are remote. Nevertheless, Ukraine was able to organize all this accordingly. Before that, the AFU systematically knocked out the Russian air defense in order to lay routes for the drones.
Since Russia quite obviously realizes that it does not look very good in this respect, they have already invented a conspiracy theory that Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are letting drones through their territory. But this version cannot stand any criticism. Yes, individual drones have flown into Estonia, but these are just UAVs that were knocked off the path by the Russian REB system, and that is the only reason why they end up there. So, in fact, all the drones are going through Russian territory.
Ukraine's goal here is as follows: according to Reuters reports, as a result of such attacks, both Baltic ports have stopped working indefinitely. Thus, Russia has lost 40% of its oil exports. If Russia was counting on a significant increase in revenues due to rising oil prices due to the war in the Middle East, thanks to such a special operation by Ukraine, we can say that the decrease in exports will compensate for the increase in prices. Therefore, Russia will not be able to count on increased revenues.
Strategically, if this can be extended for any significant time, Russia will face problems related to overproduction of oil that cannot be exported or refined. They will have to somehow mothball their oil fields, which is quite difficult. And this cannot be done for a short period of time.
All this may strategically bring quite serious problems for Russia, but it will depend on how long the attacks on Russian oil ports will continue. Naturally, in this regard, the statement of the Ukrainian president, who just recently said in an interview that some of Kiev's partners in the West are insisting that the AFU reduce the intensity of attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure, is telling. Obviously, this is coming primarily from the United States, which is now trying its best to keep oil prices from rising. As a matter of fact, they themselves provoked this growth with their war in the Middle East, and now they are trying to restrain it.
As a result, they are lifting sanctions on Russian oil and even on Iranian oil. As a result, Iran is now making more money than it did before the war in the Middle East. At the same time, there have been constant threats that the United States will withdraw from the negotiation process, they will run out of missiles and other weapons to supply to Ukraine within the framework of the European Union arms purchase program for us. So, obviously, there is pressure on Ukraine, but our position is simple: let the United States achieve a ceasefire and the shelling will stop there.
Moreover, Ukraine even agrees to a ceasefire in the energy sector. If, for example, Russia refrains from hitting Ukrainian energy, Ukraine will refrain from hitting Russian energy. So far there are no answers to these questions, so Ukraine will continue its actions.
- Indeed, Ukraine's strategy is clearly not in the hands of Trump, who has eased sanctions against Russian oil to prevent a surge in energy prices. Is Ukraine ready to escalate this issue with the United States?
- Actually, the United States itself has gone for aggravation. A discussion on this issue has entered the public space. In particular, the president of Ukraine said that the United States requires Ukraine to withdraw its troops from Donbass as a condition for any security guarantees. Marco Rubio parried these statements. The exchange of mutual accusations continues.
I think there will be some kind of escalation in these relations in the near future. The United States may believe that now is the optimal moment to reset relations with Russia.
The Ukrainian leadership understands all this perfectly well. With the U.S. having provoked a rise in oil prices with its thoughtless policy, it is probably not really Ukraine's problem that they allowed all this to happen. And now Ukraine has to think how to compensate for the fact that Russia will receive much more money. Naturally, all that money will be spent on war against Ukraine. So Ukraine has no other way, and the United States is not offering it anything.
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