A "black Cow" Flew To Russia Instead Of A "black Swan"

The lethal triggers were often completely random events.

It's even somehow uncomfortable to joke about this topic, but it seems that a beast-eater can die from a simple foot-and-mouth disease.

In general, while everyone was waiting for the "black swan", the "black cow" came from the sky, and in a sense it is worse than the swan, because it can be much larger.

The problem seems local, but if we analyze the histories of the fall of great empires, it is striking that their agony was completed just by very insignificant local challenges, which were not in the mainstream of the threats that these empires heroically fought for decades at the end of their lives.

Moreover, the deadly triggers often turned out to be completely random events, including natural cataclysms, to which the empire, involved in its existential internal and external wars, simply did not have time to give an adequate response in time.

Gorbachev planned neither Spitak nor Chernobyl. Moreover, formally both of these challenges were handled very effectively by the system, if we look at the immediate result. And, of course, neither of them can be blamed on Gorbachev. But both of these cases revealed the general inability of the system to conduct a normal dialog with the society when the society has questions for the authorities. Overcoming any such emergency situation was accompanied by such a pile of excessive lies that in the end there was always a powerful political aftertaste, which did not disappear until the end of the system.

The inability of Putin's authorities to talk frankly about the war is developing into a total inability to talk frankly about anything at all.

The foot-and-mouth disease, assuming that it was exactly that, is seen in this system of coordinates as a "second Ukrainian front," farmers as a "fifth column," and the attempt to save a cow as "state treason.

An already difficult situation under such an approach quickly evolves into a political crisis, the political crisis has to be suppressed by extraordinary administrative measures, and these measures eventually hit "their own" (including the "relatives" of the affected cattle owners sitting in the trench).

A new form of political "friendly fire": SVO vets against SVO veterans.

Revolution will not grow out of such clashes, of course. But they can have a significant impact on the desacralization of power.

In Russia, the path between the stations "The Tsar is our savior" and "The Tsar has been replaced" is very short, and it is strewn with rakes and horns and hooves...

Vladimir Pastukhov, Telegram

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