Valery Karbalevich: Lukashenko Has A New Problem

The dictator will have to prove to the security forces that the Americans did not "bend" him over

Despite numerous doubts and obstacles, the Belarusian-American negotiation process continues. The result of the visit of John Cole to Minsk was the release of a record number of political prisoners. Political observer Valery Karbalevich writes about it in his column on the "Radio Svaboda" website.

The visits of the special representative of the US President John Cole to Belarus are becoming part of the political cycle. They already take place as if according to a certain algorithm, schedule, once every three months, at any time of the year. And they are very effective, each visit is accompanied by the release of political prisoners.

Critically, it is important that the negotiation process continues, although there have been many hypotheses about its termination.

It was assumed that Donald Trump might be offended by Alexander Lukashenko because of his refusal to fly to the United States for a meeting of the Peace Council.

In addition, all external observers paid attention to Russia's protests over Lukashenko's intention to fly to the United States, which once again emphasized the dependent, puppet status of the Belarusian ruler.

On the other hand, the US war against Iran has become a certain test for the Belarusian-American dialog. After all, during this war, the topic of the military conflict in Ukraine lost its priority in the US foreign policy. It is known that Washington was interested in Belarus precisely because of its participation in this conflict in the neighborhood. Under the new conditions, as many believed, this attention may decrease.

In addition, after the attack of the United States and Israel on Iran, Belarusian propagandists in the state media called for the termination of the negotiation process with the Americans as a sign of protest and solidarity with Iranian allies.

But despite all these warnings, John Cole came to Minsk. After all, his visits to Belarus bring Trump success. And positive news for the US president is desperately needed now, given the rise in global oil and gas prices as a result of the war against Iran.

"President Trump has pretty much given me complete discretion on this issue. I report to him, and so far he doesn't mind, because it helps the world see that we're not just at war. We're also a very compassionate people, and we believe in human rights and humanitarian projects. It gives people freedom, people who haven't had it for years and now have it," John Cole told Newsmax on the evening of March 19.

To continue the dialogue, the next, stronger steps need to be taken, the negotiation process needs to be reinvigorated. And this is happening. The reopening of embassies is being prepared. Plans for Lukashenko's visit to the United States are being discussed. The number of released political prisoners is growing. This time there are 250 of them. This is a record.

Moreover, and this is a fundamentally important point, 15 people were deported from the country, 235 remained in Belarus. This concession of the Belarusian authorities is very important. After all, until now Lukashenko categorically stated that all those released under the "deal" with the U.S. would be taken abroad. The concession was made not only under strong pressure from the U.S., but also in connection with the beginning of the investigation into the actions of the Belarusian authorities by the International Criminal Court. The word "deportation" was very clearly stated in the court document.

Last week, during his trip to Dribin, Lukashenko touched on this topic. If one tries to decipher his, as usual, contradictory statements, they can be reduced to the following conclusion: yes, we will not take all released political prisoners abroad, but those who break the law will be put back behind bars. That is, it can be interpreted in such a way that conditions will be created for the released political prisoners that they will leave on their own.

After Cole's visit, Lukashenko will face the problem of explaining to his supporters, first of all to the law enforcers, why he made too many concessions, and proving that the Americans did not "bend" him over.

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