"Lukashenko Had To Concede, And This Is An Important Precedent"

A dictator needs to be pressured.

Political analyst of "Radio Svaboda" Valery Karbalevich in a conversation with "Filin" spoke about the release of 250 political prisoners and the negotiation process between the United States and Belarus.

- We see the release of a record number of people and, very importantly, most of them remained in Belarus. This is an important concession from the Belarusian side, because until now Lukashenko has actually denied such a possibility," Karbalevich told Filin. - Speaking at the SNC in December, he said it was impossible - it was his tough condition.

- Here we can talk not only about the pressure from the U.S., but also about the decision of the International Criminal Court to launch an investigation against Belarus.

Lukashenko had to concede, and this is an important precedent, which says that he can be pressured. And he will concede when he realizes that it is better to concede in a small matter, but to win in what he considers much more important for himself.

We can say that Cole's visits are acquiring some kind of system. In fact, once every three months he appears in Belarus. And he promised that all political prisoners should be released by the end of the year.

- Do you think it is possible? And what can the regime ask for in return?

- Quite possible. It's not a problem to release some of them and recruit new ones. What are the conditions? Some very favorable offers from the other side.

For example, if Lukashenko's visit to the U.S. at Trump's invitation really takes place, I think Lukashenko could well bring as a gift the release of all political prisoners who will be there at that time.

- Is it possible that the pardoned political prisoners remaining in Belarus will be given such living conditions in the country that they will be forced to leave anyway?

- It is entirely possible. This is what Lukashenko was hinting at when he answered questions from journalists last week. One could read this idea in the words that we can release them, but the law is the same for everyone, and if they break the law, they may end up behind bars again.

- So, I don't rule out that they will create such conditions that people will want to go abroad themselves.

- Why hasn't Andrzej Poczobut been released so far? Under what conditions can he be released?"

- Here is some personal issue and personal problem of Lukashenko.

According to Lukashenko, there were agreements, behind-the-scenes negotiations. They say the Poles did not fulfill their conditions, and Poczobut did not come out. Apparently, there were indeed some agreements, but the parties either misunderstood each other or failed to fulfill the agreement. But Pochobut ended up being the extreme.

It's hard to say what the problem is here. It used to be said that he didn't want to leave. But I think if the authorities wanted to take him out, no one would have asked whether he wanted to go or not, like most of the other political prisoners who were taken out. There are some psychological moments here, tied personally to Lukashenka's performance.

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