ISW: The AFU Is Creating More And More Serious Problems For Russia

The targets of the Ukrainian strikes have changed.

Since the beginning of 2026, the Ukrainian Defense Forces have changed the tactics and targets of strikes and pose increasingly serious problems for Russia at the tactical, operational and strategic levels. This is according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

"Ukrainian drone units are increasingly prioritizing and successfully striking Russian artillery, drone operators, and logistical targets in the near rear to achieve tactical results," the analysts said.

On March 17, the head of planning for the Ukrainian drone battalion operating in the Liman direction said that the AFU has refocused its UAV strikes, prioritizing the defeat of Russian artillery, drone operators, ground lines of communication and beachheads over Russian infantry, which reduces the number of Russian attacks and allows Ukrainian forces to achieve localized successes. Frequent drone strikes on Russian communications antennas demoralize Russian forces and also hinder communications on the front lines, he said.

Such a close combat campaign against the Russian tactical rear increasingly weakens both Russian offensive and defensive capabilities, allowing the Ukrainian armed forces to achieve tactical successes and hindering Russia's ability to conduct artillery preparations for an expected spring-summer offensive in 2026, ISW noted.

Medium and long-range strikes

In addition, Ukrainian forces are conducting systematic operations to weaken Russian air defenses and detect other high-value targets in the Russian rear at medium and long ranges. Thus, a Ukrainian intelligence analyst based on open sources reported on March 18 that the number of monthly medium-range strikes by Ukrainian forces at a distance of 50 to 250 kilometers from the front line has quadrupled since November 2025.

He noted that the AFU has been striking radar stations, launchers and other elements of the Russian air defense system. In doing so, they used Ukrainian-made medium-range drones with a range of up to 250 kilometers to partially replace HIMARS systems, and increased the use of long-range FP-2 drones.

"Ukraine's destruction of the Russian air defense network through concentrated strikes on radars and air defense systems allows subsequent Ukrainian strikes to hit other valuable targets behind the Russian lines, expanding the Ukrainian campaign's medium-range strike capabilities," ISW stressed.

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