What Will Be The New Iran

Let's imagine a best-case scenario.

The US and Israel's attack on Iran is least of all explained by the desire of these two countries to free the people of Iran from the disgusting, aggressive and utterly deceitful regime of the ayatollahs. The attackers are also indifferent to the fact that Iran is Russia's most active ally, including in its war against Ukraine.

The purpose of the war is different, and it is not hidden - to protect Israel from the aggressive regime in Iran, which could develop nuclear weapons from one hour to the next. I do not rule out at all that Iran already has such weapons - North Korea, Russia or China could share them, of course, in the deepest secrecy from the whole world. But even this is not the main thing.

Let's imagine the best scenario: the Ayatollah regime is overthrown by an uprising of the Iranian people, and a new political regime is established in Tehran. Where are the guarantees that it will be democratic? Pro-American? Pro-Israeli? There are no such guarantees. Most likely, this huge country with uninterrupted existence of civilization for five thousand years (counting from Elam), with a population of more than 80 million people, spread over 1650 thousand square kilometers, after natural upheavals will consolidate again and regain its unique face.

It is unlikely to be such a fierce and stupid enemy of Israel and the United States, as in the days of the Islamic Republic, but Iran will certainly not be a friend of these countries. Most likely, Iran will be with other countries of the Islamic world, will become one of its main centers on a par with Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. And this does not bode well either for the US or, especially, for Israel.

In addition, the people of Iran will remember this war not only as a help from friends, but also as a blow from the enemy. And not only because the ayatollahs' propaganda has done its job, but also because many Iranians, including enemies of the current regime, will die under these missiles and bombs. Such things are not forgivable, especially to the proud people of Persia. And, of course, like Pakistan, Iran will still build its nuclear weapons. This process can be slowed down, but it cannot be stopped.

But there are other scenarios. If the IRGC does not scatter like the CPSU did in 1991, Iran will face a severe civil war with elements of inter-ethnic (Kurds, Baluchis, Azeris) and inter-religious (Shiites against Sunnis) war. This war, in a country filled to the brim with weapons and military technology, could blow up the entire Middle and Fore East. And this is even worse for Israel, the US and its allies in the region.

And the worst scenario, but also likely, is that the Ayatollah-QCIR regime will resist, retaliate, and humiliate the US and Israel, just as it humiliated the US in Vietnam in 1975, and a coalition of Western countries in Afghanistan more recently. Then the current U.S.-Israeli NWO will take on a truly global and catastrophic scale.

So do not look, dear friends, at what is happening in the Middle East today as a computer game. These events are likely to affect all of us to a great extent.

Andrei Zubov, Facebook

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